"The companies have not shared enough of their profits with their employees, and this could dampen the recovery," says Aneta Markowska, economist at Societe Generale CIB. In the U.S., the share of corporate revenues redistributed to employees has dropped from 59.8% in the second quarter, its lowest level since the Second World War.

Recruitment at half

Paradoxically, "the companies that have entered the crisis with little debt and thus did not need to rebalance their balance sheets, accumulate cash and threaten the recovery," says Aneta Markowska. Their cash is now nearly 6% of their assets, against less than 4.5% before the crisis. A level not seen since the 50s, according to figures from Societe Generale CIB. The most obvious translation of this strategy, they block the hiring.

Natixis, the head of economic research, Patrick Artus, made the same observation. In a classical revival, the increase in profits resulting from investment, thus creating jobs, which in turn produce growth. But this time it's different.'Distortion of revenue sharing to the detriment of employees led to the weakening of wage and salary income, thus accentuating the weakness of domestic demand, "says Patrick Artus in a note. In the U.S., it will need more time to households in debt up to his neck to clean up their finances before eating again.

Uncertainty

If companies are ants and jealously guard their cash flow, because a great uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. Because of fears of fallout in recession, "they do not know what will be their future profits and (in the U.S., Ed) they have difficulty in measuring what the impact of tax measures on the viability of their projects investment ", according to Societe Generale economist IPC.

Growth at half-profits on the rise, "he will have to get used to the difference," said Patrick Artus, who believes this is a trend. First, large groups are investing in emerging markets with high potential, which boosts their results. Then the credit market freeze that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers has scalded. They now want to finance their own investments and not to depend on external funding.

Because when things affecting families, the file is always a bit more complicated. Saffron, which has shown since the July interest in the Zodiac Aerospace supplier, faces several shareholder and indecisive. And in a certain direction: when the merger proposal was made to Zodiac, its supervisory board, chaired by Olivier Zarrouati decided dryly "unanimously that there was no need to implement this proposal.

Saffron démord however.If the group led by Jean-Paul Herteman always excludes any hostile takeover Zodiac Aerospace, it should go in the coming days the decision to launch or not a bid, according to La Tribune on Monday. Saffron remains convinced of the relevance of such a rapprochement.

The stock market also seems to be convinced, as evidenced by the soaring shares in early July Zodiac: +25% in two weeks. The government, which holds 30% of the Zodiac, too, vote for it.Already, because Saffron has a good experience in mergers and acquisitions, but because this new entity would achieve industrial and technological progress and better respond to major clients such as Airbus and Boeing, who want to work with limited number of suppliers.

A Family Affair

The best way to Saffron convaicre recalcitrant shareholders Zodiac lies ultimately in the financial conditions of the proposal. It takes a high price, especially to put in his camp Domange family, which owns more than 10.5% of the capital. According to La Tribune e, the Peugeot family, she would agree.

The Tribune understands that Safran would be able to offer a significant premium of 30-40% compared to the current share price, which is 43.4 euros. The amount per share would be increased from 56.5 to 60 euros. Let her best historical levels.Saffron is also trying to explain to those shareholders that the merger could be accomplished through stock swaps to maintain the fiscal pact that exists at the Zodiac, which they are attached, as it allows for more than 6 million euros in savings in taxes on capital.

As soon as the bell rang at the Paris Stock Exchange on Monday morning, trading Zodiac Aerospace has been suspended for several minutes before the title is displayed up 13.65% to 49.28 euros, while the SBF 120 index rose 0.38%. A sign that the markets believe in this marriage.

Saffron is willing and able

The figures put forward by the business daily are considered credible by observers."The price mentioned by The Tribune is a surprise to anyone," Judge Pierre and Boucheny, Kepler Capital Markets.

Saffron could finance "no problem" such an offer, even cash, for a price that would reach "four billion euros, including debt redemption," said another analyst.

Saffron, merged in 2005 the engine manufacturer Snecma and Sagem, has also acquired other projects. He could well wrap the forthcoming resumption of the French public group SNPE in the propulsion of rockets and missiles.

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LE FIGARO. – Are you not preparing a tight budget?

Francis BAROIN. – When developing a budget, there must be serious and make sense. Our meeting last Friday about the president and prime minister had intended to make choices to reduce public spending in order to achieve the 6% deficit in late 2011. It is the cornerstone of our policy.Everything must work towards this goal: we have an obligation to return as quickly to deficit levels before the crisis. This is a critical issue for our economic growth. The debt and deficits are the major topics of concern of the French, and we must demonstrate our ability to reduce, which will restore their confidence in the future and encourage them to consume and invest in return.

Why have revised down growth for 2011, while the activity was better than expected in recent months?

Economic activity in the first half of 2010 was in line with our expectations, and we should finish the year with growth of 1.4% or even above. For 2011, we forecast a proactive and realistic.Aim for 2% growth, consistent with the OECD projection is proactive because it's better than 2010, but is also realistic because we must not forget that a recession ever went there and that all countries that have suffered will take time to erase the traces.

Are you worried about the credit ratings of France?

No. Over the past two years, it was vital to sustain economic activity by injecting public spending. The revival in France, was very well calculated, and I see that despite large deficits our country continues to borrow at historically low levels on the markets. This indicates that investors have confidence in us.They know we have great resources at our disposal such as a savings among the highest in Europe.

If growth is higher than expected this year, can we expect increased revenue for the State and Social Security?

The good news critical of the first term is the creation of 60,000 jobs. The recovery of the labor market is expected to generate about 2 billion of additional social security contributions. In mid-September, we'll do the exact point on this revenue to build the draft law on financing of Social Security in 2011 on a solid and sincere.

And for the state?

Tax revenues are in line with our expectations. This is particularly the case of corporation tax, which is a very positive signal. The crisis resulted in 2009 by a collapse of social security contributions and tax revenue. We go out.Any additional revenues from the economic forecasting will be fully allocated to deficit reduction.

Nicolas Sarkozy announced Friday a cut of 10 billion in tax and social niches. Is not that a tax increase in disguise?

Absolutely not. No one is forced to use a niche tax to reduce his tax: it is a personal decision. In contrast, a general increase in taxation would penalize everyone. There is no question of doing so. We will not increase taxes, whether VAT, income tax or corporation tax. It is a very political choice, which corresponds to the commitment made by Nicolas Sarkozy during the presidential campaign. To reduce deficits, we have decided to act primarily on the expenditure, including that which passes through structural reforms.In a country where public expenditure accounts for over half of national wealth, is where are the flexibilities consistent.

All the niches are not "chosen". Some tax cuts meet family responsibilities, to situations of handicap, disability, age. Will they be trimmed as well?

Similarly we have not touched the RSA and social minimum, the vulnerable population will be spared by the plane or the removal of niches. Family policy will also be preserved. But it is true that the reduction of niches is an exercise in subtle and difficult. Found 10 billion in savings over 75 billion tax and spending 45 billion on social niches represents a substantial effort. But necessary. For years, the niches have been the choice of the facility.Sometimes washed sand.

The movement of the plane there will be enough to keep your goal?

First, I note that we have actually a little less than 2 billion to find the niches. For decisions taken in the context of pension reform and the level of those to be on the Cades (Sinking Fund of the social debt) will yield a total of over 7 billion. And, of course, we will also with a plane that will reduce by 10% the tax advantage of a number of devices. But this is not the only tool used. Some niches will be deleted. Other tax cuts would be concentrated or have their revised calculation method. The idea is to share the effort between businesses and households. We make our decisions be final in mid-September.

Investors fear being heavily utilized.Are they right?

One of the successes of the French economy is the savings of its households. We will be very careful not to destabilize it. In general, we want to protect the purchasing power of the French.

How to pay off the debt that Social Security has widened during the crisis?

Along with bills of state finances and Social Security, this fall, I will defend an organic bill to Parliament which will define the terms of repayment of 35 billion debt to Social Security that we will transfer to Cades . This organic law proposes to extend the four-year life of Cades, which is currently scheduled for late 2021. We also will allocate 3.2 billion euros of additional resources each year to Cades to be learned from the reduction or elimination of certain niches.Finally, Cades benefit from the recovery of the pension reserve fund which it will draw some resources.

You will increase the margin tax on certain investments of life insurance or income from movable capital (bonds, shares …) to finance the Cades?

It is a trail to the study among others.

Some members of the majority will once again seek an increase in the DRES …

We expect this debate during the fall, which is legitimate. But by offering 10 billion euros in savings on tax and social niches, we will show members that we have the means to finance the Cades without having to raise the CRDS.

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For Baroin growth could exceed 1.4% in 2010

"France has never been so close to losing its AAA rating

A view shared by Michael Emmanuel Thuy Munis and Hassim, respectively partner and manager of the consulting firm NPT Consultants specializes in the banking and insurance.

Lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – French banks (NBP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis) Will they pass the exam?

Without a doubt! These stress tests are a bit like the Bachelor: almost everyone will have it in Europe, which makes him lose credibility. In fact, the findings of these tests of resistance will not argue not much. What to watch, what are the assumptions.

Which are these assumptions?

Assumptions on growth, unemployment, inflation and real estate are set by the Bank of France. There are two scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. For example, last year, the first was zero growth and the second a recession of 2.5%.

From a standpoint of the bank as a company, the exercise was to downgrade by one notch rating default probability given to each level of the portfolio of the bank.

For example, if a risk of default is currently 2, the bank simulates a situation where the risk is rated 4. All branches of the portfolio and are staggered. On seeing the situation deteriorate and in its asset portfolio, the bank must protect themselves against-some of these risks and increase its mass of capital and liquidity to cope with any difficulties. This is also the challenge of the recommendations of Basel III, currently in talks.

These assumptions pose any real conditions of a major economic crisis?

The assumptions and asked did not reflect the reality of a major shock No fax cash loans. They lay the groundwork for a gradual and slow recovery, but do not take into account the possibility of a relapse into recession, for example (the famous "double-dip").

Neither of the possible restructuring of the debt of a country of weight outside the EU. As Russia. While in Europe, as was the case with Greece, for example, member states have shown they would join forces in order not to leave one of his bankruptcy, what will happen if Russia had to reschedule its debt? We can not know, but the situation would be catastrophic.

What are the political success of these stress tests?

There is a little over a year, the U.S. findings were providing stress testing of 19 banks very good (only two have failed), which had been boosted confidence in the U.S. banking system after the blow of Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.And after that 10% of U.S. institutions bancires put the key under the door!

European markets also need to be reassured, and policies have any interest.Ultimately, these stress tests are different goal in mind that European governments are behind their banks.

French banks can they go bankrupt?

In France, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, which spans international, will never be dropped by the French state, because the consequences of a failure of one of these institutions are unimaginable, especially in terms of employment.

If they had to go through another very difficult phase, the state will play its role of lender of last resort, even though the price of a huge debt.

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* BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis.

The two behemoths differ as much in their diagnoses of the French market. When Century 21 evaluates to 8.5% average increase in prices over the last twelve months, Fnaim reported an almost stagnant (+0.1%).

As regards property each looks after their own door, because nothing is more difficult to measure changes in prices of existing homes, all different from each other by definition. For its part, Century 21 invokes a simple method."No transaction is forgotten: the collection of information is done automatically from the software used when signing the preliminary contract (promise of sale)," said Laurent Vimont, network chair. Then simply compare the average price per square meter of transactions between two time periods to calculate the evolution.

Century 21 refutes the argument that sellers of "nice apartments" have retained their property during the recession of 2008-2009 winter to put them back on the market in greater numbers in the first half of 2010 when the economy restarts. That does it not distort price comparisons from one period to another? "Not because we are working on samples large enough for this" quality effect "does not play. Our transactions have focused on 23,200 units in France in the first half of 2010, with 1536 sales in Paris, "says one.

Battle figures

Fnaim whose records are also on the "promise of sale", is based on a more sophisticated methodology and relatively delicate absolutely free credit score. "We correct the observed effects of price structures, including the size, location, comfort items, etc. …», explains Nicolas Thouvenin, the Director General of Fnaim. It also boasts a high number of transactions (5000 per month), 10% of the national market.

This method is quite close to the observation model established by notaries, with scientific backing from INSEE for 20 years. Except as notaries, considered the "justices" in statistics, working on sales contracts themselves, so with a delay of at least three months.Other disability, notary fees are not legal obligation to back the information to their rooms (85% do in Paris).

The Housing Secretariat is closely following this battle of numbers. After asking the National Council of Statistical Information (CNIS) a general report on "improving statistics, real estate and construction," which was presented in late March, Benoist Appeared plans to implement some of its recommendations "from the start," says one to his office.

Notaries will now be forced to disclose all their transactions to feed price indices. And they will work on the "pre-contracts" in order to better fit the situation. The reform should come into force from the fourth quarter of 2010 in Ile-de-France and the first quarter of 2011 in the rest of the country, says one.In addition, a device "calibration for private producers of statistics (like Century 21 and Fnaim) would be operational by spring 2011. A sort of tutelage that professionals look more or less enthusiasm and skepticism.

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This Italian 57 years, trained in computer technology and speaks five languages, has not missed any arguments to "sell" the young company and its innovative and promising.His prosthesis, implantable total artificial heart developed by Professor Carpentier of the Georges Pompidou Hospital, from 2013 should help save tens of thousands of cardiac patients. A challenge that fascinates Marcello Convite former IBM and Fiat, paid for thirty years in the life sciences. He held until last September to senior posts in the American International Edwards Lifesciences, who had just bought to Professor Carpentier's revolutionary concept of cardiac valves. For Dr. Philippe Pouletty, CEO of Truffle Capital, with the artificial heart (which will remain French …), Carmat has "all the ingredients to become a global technology company beautiful. "A great adventure of entrepreneurs, leading the veteran of the biotechnology industry has also brought public in April and companies Neovacs Deinove.

Carmat is, in fact, primarily a story of men.An R & D secrets first, initiated in EADS by Jean-Luc Lagardere and Professor Carpentier and developed for 15 years by a team of engineers led by former "Mr. International" of EADS, Jean-Claude Cadudal, president of Carmat.

Beside him, the engineer, former head of EADS big projects, and "very good teacher," Patrick Coulombier, also played a key role. It is today, with Marcello Convite DGA society. It was created in 2008 under the leadership of Philippe Pouletty because, after the release of préprototype, "he had to go to the next level." By convincing the engineers of the European giant switch in the start-up and live the adventure.

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According to the decree published in the OJ, the Regulatory Authority online games (Arjel), a specially created, issued 17 licenses, or "amenities" to 11 operators of online games to start from the Paris Global South Africa (June 11-July 11).

The Arjel had received 25 cases corresponding to approximately 35 applications for approval paris sports, horse or Poker. A figure that has evolved steadily, because there is no deadline for submitting applications. One thing is certain, there will be poor candidates because half of the applications have been reviewed by the Arjel. Moreover, the opening of online poker games has been delayed a month because of an obstruction of Malta.

"The educational services are not idle," says Jean-Francois Vilotte, Chairman of the Authority. A number of candidates will not obtain approval immediately, because they are incomplete, we need additional information or have been filed later. "

The Official Journal that published earlier in the night his decree, the lucky few can enter. Provided, said Jean-Francois Vilotte, that computer systems (including safes) are operational and that the game software have been certified by the Arjel.

Like its competitors, Philippe Germond, CEO of the PMU is in the starting blocks. "I feel like the boss of a shop where the shelves are ready, as sellers, there is more than the curtain open," says he.The first operator in Europe paris horse wants to be present on the fifteen licensed sports, from football to rugby to tennis, judo and rowing. He filed his May 18 request for approval for paris horse, and sports of poker. A pad 7400 pages!

Among the operators concerned by the decree, we find also the PMU, the French or Unibet Games, Beturf, BES SAS.

The competition will be difficult. All applicants expect a rapid concentration of the market. Philippe Germond table 4-5 major groups in Paris and a little more sport in poker. Starting from zero, Barrierepoker is 20-25% market share within five years. Marc Simoncini, 20% shareholder Winamax, a site 100% poker is more ambitious. "We want to stay in the top three poker sites in France, says he.I am convinced that those who succeed are the pure poker players. "

Setback to illegal sites

The success of the liberalization of gambling will depend on the state capacity to fight against the multitude of sites which remain outside the law by not asking for approval to the Arjel. They are 25,000 in the world, including 20% in French. On Thursday, the European justice has inflicted another blow. Two licensed operators in the UK, Ladbrokes and Betfair, invoked the freedom to provide services in the European Union to assert their license with the United Kingdom, they could market their offers in the Netherlands. The Justice has confirmed that it was legitimate for a country to ban them, to combat fraud and protect consumers.

Consequently, the Japanese manufacturer, also a victim of the premium end of the breaks, slowing production on the Old Continent. The Onnaing plant in northern France, which produces the Yaris will undergo fourteen days of partial unemployment by 1 July, a union source. His pace, already reduced to 837 cars per day in February, dropping to 651 vehicles May 10After splitting from over 300 temps in February, the plant will not renew the contracts of the 340 remaining, the source said.

Eight days of production shutdown is also scheduled by mid-April in Britain, according to the Japanese agency Kyodo. Production will be suspended again in August and 750 jobs should be deleted.

To reassure customers

Aware that the crisis of technical faults has tarnished the image of his group, Akio Toyoda, Toyota's CEO, tried this week to reassure employees and customers during an impromptu visit to EU headquarters in Brussels. Having acknowledged that the group had wanted to grow up too quickly at the expense of quality, Akio Toyoda has formalized the establishment of a World Committee on this subject. The goal is to go faster technical problems payday loan no faxing .This committee will be chaired by the CEO and will have five members. Didier Leroy, previously director of sales and marketing in Europe, has been appointed quality manager for this area.

"We must reassure our existing customers on the fact that there were no accidents in Europe, and that repairs are progressing," says Didier Leroy. Approximately 750 000 vehicles were repaired in Europe on more than 1.6 million recalled because of faulty accelerator and nearly 53 000 Prius hybrid with a brake problem.

For now, a survey conducted in late February in the United States, shows that Japanese customers remain loyal to the brand. Only 6.5% of them said they no longer buy Toyota because of technical faults.But "convince other drivers to choose a Toyota is more complicated in the coming months, acknowledged recently Didier Leroy.

Meanwhile, the pressure intensifies court against the group in the United States. The San Diego court must determine whether complaints of Toyota customers can not be grouped into one, rather than separately. Toyota is the subject of 138 complaints in partnership with the United States for vehicle depreciation and 97 complaints relating to death or injury in accidents.

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Also surprising is it, this opening is in the meanings of the Amazon listings for the past six months. In fact, Amazon had already opened its application for reading books in digital mobile phones iPhone and iPod Touch by the firm at the apple.Specifically, a user who has purchased a digital book on Kindle bookshop (which bears the same name as the drive itself) will have the opportunity to read or to continue reading on the iPad tablet.

"For consumers around the world who do not (the tablet reading) Kindle (application) for Mac Kindle is a great way to immediately access and read new books most popular and classical favorites "said the director of Amazon Kindle, Jay Navy, in a statement.

This announcement confirms that buyers of the new multimedia tool iPad perceived as a threat to traditional tablets reads like the Kindle will have the choice of several systems to read books.

"Amazon has done excellent pioneering work of this feature with the Kindle, we will build on its achievements," said Steeve Jobs in presenting the iPad late January.

Investors reacted without enthusiasm to these ads. Around 19h25, the Dow Jones climbed 0.32% to 10,676 points while the Nasdaq is 0.57% at 2376 points. The S & P 500 gained 0.61% to 1157 points.

In addition, import prices in the United States declined slightly more than expected in February by 0.3% from the previous month after rising 1.3% in January, according to the Labor Department.Analysts expected a decline somewhat less pronounced, 0.2%.

Housing starts and housing issuing of building permits in the United States also fell in February by 5.9% from the previous month, falling to 575,000 units annually. But with very bad weather that hit much of the country, analysts expected a sharper drop, to 570,000.

Good news in Europe

Reassuring news came from the rating agency Standard and Poor's.This continued Tuesday in the long term rating of BBB + from Greece and announced not to consider a decrease in the short term, but accompanied the confirmation of a negative outlook.

Moreover, in Brussels, the Finance Ministers of the European Union have "supported the evaluation by the European Commission to the budgetary situation of Greece", says European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Olli Rehn.

The news has boosted European markets … and the euro. The European currency climbed from 0.64% to 1.3760 dollar.

The bank in the viewfinder

In all cases, caution is needed, particularly for the banking sector the most significant announcements of monetary policy committee of the Federal Reserve easy payday loans .Especially as yesterday, Democratic Senator Chris Dodd has introduced a text aimed at reforming American finance which seeks consensus. But he does not yet collect no Republican support. JP Morgan Chase (-0.20%), Goldman Sachs (0.66%) or Bank of America (0.71%) react in an uncoordinated manner.

On the side of values, PepsiCo (-0.14% to 66.06 dollars) announced after the close of Wall Street yesterday, up 7% of its dividend and authorized a new share repurchase 15 billion dollars before June 2013. This new program replaces the $ 6.4 billion, which expires next June.

Similarly, Limited Brands (Victoria's Secret, Abercrombie & Fich …) has announced a special dividend of $ 1 and approved a share repurchase of 200 million dollars.Securities climbed 4.43% to 24.77 dollars.

Also in the luxury sector, the parent company of Calvin Klein, the Philips-Van Heusen (1.64% to 53.30 dollars) announced yesterday the acquisition of the brand casual wear Tommy Hilfiger fund of British investment Apax Partners.

Google (0.53% to 566.16 dollars) could close its search engine or a part of its activities in China. The U.S. group would be safe "99.9%" to abandon its Chinese search engine, reported the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal this weekend.

The results of FedEx (+0.21%) for the third quarter are expected Thursday. The numbers of specialist couriers are expected.They usually figure advanced barometer of business activity.

The record company Sony (-0.32% to 37.49 dollars) has signed a contract worth 250 million dollars to the heirs of Michael Jackson until 2017 to distribute new and derivatives of the "King of pop, died last June, the Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter.