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For Christine Lagarde at the Ministry of Finance, Dominique Strauss-Kahn as IMF, Jean-Claude Trichet at the ECB (European Central Bank), confidence is at an appointment. The results of stress tests, tests of resistance of 91 European banks (including four French *) in an economic environment deteriorated, which will be announced Friday, will be good. Rumors even show a successful Franco-Belgian Dexia and the Belgian KBC, however fragile, in this review.

A view shared by Michael Emmanuel Thuy Munis and Hassim, respectively partner and manager of the consulting firm NPT Consultants specializes in the banking and insurance.

Lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – French banks (NBP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis) Will they pass the exam?

Without a doubt! These stress tests are a bit like the Bachelor: almost everyone will have it in Europe, which makes him lose credibility. In fact, the findings of these tests of resistance will not argue not much. What to watch, what are the assumptions.

Which are these assumptions?

Assumptions on growth, unemployment, inflation and real estate are set by the Bank of France. There are two scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. For example, last year, the first was zero growth and the second a recession of 2.5%.

From a standpoint of the bank as a company, the exercise was to downgrade by one notch rating default probability given to each level of the portfolio of the bank.

For example, if a risk of default is currently 2, the bank simulates a situation where the risk is rated 4. All branches of the portfolio and are staggered. On seeing the situation deteriorate and in its asset portfolio, the bank must protect themselves against-some of these risks and increase its mass of capital and liquidity to cope with any difficulties. This is also the challenge of the recommendations of Basel III, currently in talks.

These assumptions pose any real conditions of a major economic crisis?

The assumptions and asked did not reflect the reality of a major shock No fax cash loans. They lay the groundwork for a gradual and slow recovery, but do not take into account the possibility of a relapse into recession, for example (the famous "double-dip").

Neither of the possible restructuring of the debt of a country of weight outside the EU. As Russia. While in Europe, as was the case with Greece, for example, member states have shown they would join forces in order not to leave one of his bankruptcy, what will happen if Russia had to reschedule its debt? We can not know, but the situation would be catastrophic.

What are the political success of these stress tests?

There is a little over a year, the U.S. findings were providing stress testing of 19 banks very good (only two have failed), which had been boosted confidence in the U.S. banking system after the blow of Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.And after that 10% of U.S. institutions bancires put the key under the door!

European markets also need to be reassured, and policies have any interest.Ultimately, these stress tests are different goal in mind that European governments are behind their banks.

French banks can they go bankrupt?

In France, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, which spans international, will never be dropped by the French state, because the consequences of a failure of one of these institutions are unimaginable, especially in terms of employment.

If they had to go through another very difficult phase, the state will play its role of lender of last resort, even though the price of a huge debt.

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* BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis.

Paris is burning there? This was the message last week by Century 21, one of the major networks of estate agents (850 in France). Prices of existing homes jumped 15% in the capital between the first halves 2009 and 2010. Let us all keep, replied two days later Fnaim: the trade association which brings together 12,000 independent agencies estimated up to 6.8%.

The two behemoths differ as much in their diagnoses of the French market. When Century 21 evaluates to 8.5% average increase in prices over the last twelve months, Fnaim reported an almost stagnant (+0.1%).

As regards property each looks after their own door, because nothing is more difficult to measure changes in prices of existing homes, all different from each other by definition. For its part, Century 21 invokes a simple method."No transaction is forgotten: the collection of information is done automatically from the software used when signing the preliminary contract (promise of sale)," said Laurent Vimont, network chair. Then simply compare the average price per square meter of transactions between two time periods to calculate the evolution.

Century 21 refutes the argument that sellers of "nice apartments" have retained their property during the recession of 2008-2009 winter to put them back on the market in greater numbers in the first half of 2010 when the economy restarts. That does it not distort price comparisons from one period to another? "Not because we are working on samples large enough for this" quality effect "does not play. Our transactions have focused on 23,200 units in France in the first half of 2010, with 1536 sales in Paris, "says one.

Battle figures

Fnaim whose records are also on the "promise of sale", is based on a more sophisticated methodology and relatively delicate absolutely free credit score. "We correct the observed effects of price structures, including the size, location, comfort items, etc. …», explains Nicolas Thouvenin, the Director General of Fnaim. It also boasts a high number of transactions (5000 per month), 10% of the national market.

This method is quite close to the observation model established by notaries, with scientific backing from INSEE for 20 years. Except as notaries, considered the "justices" in statistics, working on sales contracts themselves, so with a delay of at least three months.Other disability, notary fees are not legal obligation to back the information to their rooms (85% do in Paris).

The Housing Secretariat is closely following this battle of numbers. After asking the National Council of Statistical Information (CNIS) a general report on "improving statistics, real estate and construction," which was presented in late March, Benoist Appeared plans to implement some of its recommendations "from the start," says one to his office.

Notaries will now be forced to disclose all their transactions to feed price indices. And they will work on the "pre-contracts" in order to better fit the situation. The reform should come into force from the fourth quarter of 2010 in Ile-de-France and the first quarter of 2011 in the rest of the country, says one.In addition, a device "calibration for private producers of statistics (like Century 21 and Fnaim) would be operational by spring 2011. A sort of tutelage that professionals look more or less enthusiasm and skepticism.

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D-Day for Marcello Convite the boss of the small company that wants tricolor Carmat conquer the world with its first total artificial heart biocompatible. This Tuesday, in fact, that the start-up takes its first steps on the Paris Stock Exchange, having packed the heart of investors. In difficult market conditions, the SME accompanied by Truffle Capital, its largest shareholder (30%) and EADS, has done better than expected, raising 14.5 million euros at a price of 18.50 euros per share enhancing from the outset the company 75 million. A great appreciation for its Director General who has taken brilliantly in the year, new to him, the financial road show.

This Italian 57 years, trained in computer technology and speaks five languages, has not missed any arguments to "sell" the young company and its innovative and promising.His prosthesis, implantable total artificial heart developed by Professor Carpentier of the Georges Pompidou Hospital, from 2013 should help save tens of thousands of cardiac patients. A challenge that fascinates Marcello Convite former IBM and Fiat, paid for thirty years in the life sciences. He held until last September to senior posts in the American International Edwards Lifesciences, who had just bought to Professor Carpentier's revolutionary concept of cardiac valves. For Dr. Philippe Pouletty, CEO of Truffle Capital, with the artificial heart (which will remain French …), Carmat has "all the ingredients to become a global technology company beautiful. "A great adventure of entrepreneurs, leading the veteran of the biotechnology industry has also brought public in April and companies Neovacs Deinove.

Carmat is, in fact, primarily a story of men.An R & D secrets first, initiated in EADS by Jean-Luc Lagardere and Professor Carpentier and developed for 15 years by a team of engineers led by former "Mr. International" of EADS, Jean-Claude Cadudal, president of Carmat.

Beside him, the engineer, former head of EADS big projects, and "very good teacher," Patrick Coulombier, also played a key role. It is today, with Marcello Convite DGA society. It was created in 2008 under the leadership of Philippe Pouletty because, after the release of préprototype, "he had to go to the next level." By convincing the engineers of the European giant switch in the start-up and live the adventure.

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The addicted to gambling who resisted the temptation to bet online, on the grounds that the practice was not authorized in France, will be able to satisfy their passion.

According to the decree published in the OJ, the Regulatory Authority online games (Arjel), a specially created, issued 17 licenses, or "amenities" to 11 operators of online games to start from the Paris Global South Africa (June 11-July 11).

The Arjel had received 25 cases corresponding to approximately 35 applications for approval paris sports, horse or Poker. A figure that has evolved steadily, because there is no deadline for submitting applications. One thing is certain, there will be poor candidates because half of the applications have been reviewed by the Arjel. Moreover, the opening of online poker games has been delayed a month because of an obstruction of Malta.

"The educational services are not idle," says Jean-Francois Vilotte, Chairman of the Authority. A number of candidates will not obtain approval immediately, because they are incomplete, we need additional information or have been filed later. "

The Official Journal that published earlier in the night his decree, the lucky few can enter. Provided, said Jean-Francois Vilotte, that computer systems (including safes) are operational and that the game software have been certified by the Arjel.

Like its competitors, Philippe Germond, CEO of the PMU is in the starting blocks. "I feel like the boss of a shop where the shelves are ready, as sellers, there is more than the curtain open," says he.The first operator in Europe paris horse wants to be present on the fifteen licensed sports, from football to rugby to tennis, judo and rowing. He filed his May 18 request for approval for paris horse, and sports of poker. A pad 7400 pages!

Among the operators concerned by the decree, we find also the PMU, the French or Unibet Games, Beturf, BES SAS.

The competition will be difficult. All applicants expect a rapid concentration of the market. Philippe Germond table 4-5 major groups in Paris and a little more sport in poker. Starting from zero, Barrierepoker is 20-25% market share within five years. Marc Simoncini, 20% shareholder Winamax, a site 100% poker is more ambitious. "We want to stay in the top three poker sites in France, says he.I am convinced that those who succeed are the pure poker players. "

Setback to illegal sites

The success of the liberalization of gambling will depend on the state capacity to fight against the multitude of sites which remain outside the law by not asking for approval to the Arjel. They are 25,000 in the world, including 20% in French. On Thursday, the European justice has inflicted another blow. Two licensed operators in the UK, Ladbrokes and Betfair, invoked the freedom to provide services in the European Union to assert their license with the United Kingdom, they could market their offers in the Netherlands. The Justice has confirmed that it was legitimate for a country to ban them, to combat fraud and protect consumers.

Toyota pays dearly for its quality problems in Europe, where it has recalled more than 1.7 million vehicles, nearly 9 million worldwide. Its sales fell 21% in Europe in February, while the market grew by 3.2%. In two months, the decline amounted to 8.1%.

Consequently, the Japanese manufacturer, also a victim of the premium end of the breaks, slowing production on the Old Continent. The Onnaing plant in northern France, which produces the Yaris will undergo fourteen days of partial unemployment by 1 July, a union source. His pace, already reduced to 837 cars per day in February, dropping to 651 vehicles May 10After splitting from over 300 temps in February, the plant will not renew the contracts of the 340 remaining, the source said.

Eight days of production shutdown is also scheduled by mid-April in Britain, according to the Japanese agency Kyodo. Production will be suspended again in August and 750 jobs should be deleted.

To reassure customers

Aware that the crisis of technical faults has tarnished the image of his group, Akio Toyoda, Toyota's CEO, tried this week to reassure employees and customers during an impromptu visit to EU headquarters in Brussels. Having acknowledged that the group had wanted to grow up too quickly at the expense of quality, Akio Toyoda has formalized the establishment of a World Committee on this subject. The goal is to go faster technical problems payday loan no faxing .This committee will be chaired by the CEO and will have five members. Didier Leroy, previously director of sales and marketing in Europe, has been appointed quality manager for this area.

"We must reassure our existing customers on the fact that there were no accidents in Europe, and that repairs are progressing," says Didier Leroy. Approximately 750 000 vehicles were repaired in Europe on more than 1.6 million recalled because of faulty accelerator and nearly 53 000 Prius hybrid with a brake problem.

For now, a survey conducted in late February in the United States, shows that Japanese customers remain loyal to the brand. Only 6.5% of them said they no longer buy Toyota because of technical faults.But "convince other drivers to choose a Toyota is more complicated in the coming months, acknowledged recently Didier Leroy.

Meanwhile, the pressure intensifies court against the group in the United States. The San Diego court must determine whether complaints of Toyota customers can not be grouped into one, rather than separately. Toyota is the subject of 138 complaints in partnership with the United States for vehicle depreciation and 97 complaints relating to death or injury in accidents.

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Amazon pioneered the digital Kindle book does not miss the train of Internet Tablets. A month before the release of the Apple iPad, Amazon announced that his books are readable on the iPad. This announcement is surprising as the competition between the two companies is severe.

Also surprising is it, this opening is in the meanings of the Amazon listings for the past six months. In fact, Amazon had already opened its application for reading books in digital mobile phones iPhone and iPod Touch by the firm at the apple.Specifically, a user who has purchased a digital book on Kindle bookshop (which bears the same name as the drive itself) will have the opportunity to read or to continue reading on the iPad tablet.

"For consumers around the world who do not (the tablet reading) Kindle (application) for Mac Kindle is a great way to immediately access and read new books most popular and classical favorites "said the director of Amazon Kindle, Jay Navy, in a statement.

This announcement confirms that buyers of the new multimedia tool iPad perceived as a threat to traditional tablets reads like the Kindle will have the choice of several systems to read books.

"Amazon has done excellent pioneering work of this feature with the Kindle, we will build on its achievements," said Steeve Jobs in presenting the iPad late January.

Markets dissect ads Fed on Tuesday. The latter said that economic conditions continue to ensure the maintenance of interest rates to extremely low "for a long time." The Fed maintains its policy rate in the range from 0 to 0.25%. The institution also believes that "the job market is now stabilizing.

Investors reacted without enthusiasm to these ads. Around 19h25, the Dow Jones climbed 0.32% to 10,676 points while the Nasdaq is 0.57% at 2376 points. The S & P 500 gained 0.61% to 1157 points.

In addition, import prices in the United States declined slightly more than expected in February by 0.3% from the previous month after rising 1.3% in January, according to the Labor Department.Analysts expected a decline somewhat less pronounced, 0.2%.

Housing starts and housing issuing of building permits in the United States also fell in February by 5.9% from the previous month, falling to 575,000 units annually. But with very bad weather that hit much of the country, analysts expected a sharper drop, to 570,000.

Good news in Europe

Reassuring news came from the rating agency Standard and Poor's.This continued Tuesday in the long term rating of BBB + from Greece and announced not to consider a decrease in the short term, but accompanied the confirmation of a negative outlook.

Moreover, in Brussels, the Finance Ministers of the European Union have "supported the evaluation by the European Commission to the budgetary situation of Greece", says European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Olli Rehn.

The news has boosted European markets … and the euro. The European currency climbed from 0.64% to 1.3760 dollar.

The bank in the viewfinder

In all cases, caution is needed, particularly for the banking sector the most significant announcements of monetary policy committee of the Federal Reserve easy payday loans .Especially as yesterday, Democratic Senator Chris Dodd has introduced a text aimed at reforming American finance which seeks consensus. But he does not yet collect no Republican support. JP Morgan Chase (-0.20%), Goldman Sachs (0.66%) or Bank of America (0.71%) react in an uncoordinated manner.

On the side of values, PepsiCo (-0.14% to 66.06 dollars) announced after the close of Wall Street yesterday, up 7% of its dividend and authorized a new share repurchase 15 billion dollars before June 2013. This new program replaces the $ 6.4 billion, which expires next June.

Similarly, Limited Brands (Victoria's Secret, Abercrombie & Fich …) has announced a special dividend of $ 1 and approved a share repurchase of 200 million dollars.Securities climbed 4.43% to 24.77 dollars.

Also in the luxury sector, the parent company of Calvin Klein, the Philips-Van Heusen (1.64% to 53.30 dollars) announced yesterday the acquisition of the brand casual wear Tommy Hilfiger fund of British investment Apax Partners.

Google (0.53% to 566.16 dollars) could close its search engine or a part of its activities in China. The U.S. group would be safe "99.9%" to abandon its Chinese search engine, reported the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal this weekend.

The results of FedEx (+0.21%) for the third quarter are expected Thursday. The numbers of specialist couriers are expected.They usually figure advanced barometer of business activity.

The record company Sony (-0.32% to 37.49 dollars) has signed a contract worth 250 million dollars to the heirs of Michael Jackson until 2017 to distribute new and derivatives of the "King of pop, died last June, the Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter.

The woes of Greece to the euro is the first real test of its young history. In ten years, the European single currency has successfully resisted the shock of a rare violence: attacks of September 11, 2001, collapse of the tech bubble, the subprime crisis … Nothing says that the franc, the lira or the peso would through free events such as the euro has done. But whenever these shocks, left the United States, came from outside. But now the danger lies within the zone itself. And gives rise to a nagging question: Greece will she forced eventually to leave the euro? A priori not. For a small country, belong to a large currency area is a rare opportunity. Until the stress becomes so high that it is cheaper to get out.

Athens faces a double challenge. First restore its credibility.Since its integration into the eurozone in 2001, the country has ceased to be faulted on the reality of its economic statistics. Showing at 6% in early years, deficits would in fact 12.7% of GDP, according to the latest tally of the national statistical office. A deception that shows Greece as a kind of "stowaway" in the euro area. And that makes it particularly difficult direct assistance from a European state. Public opinion of the most virtuous Germany, Netherlands or those worried about their own fate as France or Italy will struggle to agree to fund a country that gives the impression of not playing the game .

The second challenge for the Greek government is to prove its willingness to restore as soon as its public accounts.In theory, a State has two instruments to reduce its deficits: monetary policy and fiscal policy. Coin money helps finance its budget while offering the opportunity to play the currency markets by devaluing its currency to boost competitiveness. A move that boosts the growth and cause some inflation. The ideal instrument to reduce debt … by which Greece can not count because, like all countries in the euro area, monetary policy is the prerogative of the ECB in Frankfurt.

Leaves only the weapon strict budget. In this case, the organization of drastic cuts in state spending. The government of George Papandreou as he means? CRAs in doubt, especially as the social climate is strongly degraded in the country, making it particularly difficult acceptability of drastic measures.Failing to do so by itself, the Greek government will have only one solution: to put in practice under the tutelage of Brussels. In a carrot and stick, the European Commission could generate outside pressure strong enough to induce Greece to reform in depth, as the IMF has so often done in the past with countries in crisis. At the price, most of the time of painful adjustments. The question will then arise of how far the Greek people will accept sacrifices to stay in the euro area? The cost to benefit is not so obvious.

Today, the Greek state will refinance at a rate of 5.77% in ten years. A level closer to that of Hungary or Latvia as Germany. In other words, the protection offered by the euro area is almost over.Out of this system could, ultimately prove less expensive what remain, rising long rates may be offset by a devaluation immediately making the country more competitive. While giving the Greeks a sense of finding their democratic sovereignty to which they are so attached since the birth of their civilization.

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After months of debate, the British government seems determined to legislate on the issue of bonus. According to the Financial Times, the British government would consider introducing in its 2010/2011 budget, a "super-tax" which would tax specifically bankers' bonuses. Alistair Darling, Chancellor of the Exchequer, is expected Wednesday to unveil the outline.

In detail, the Financial Times said the tax would be collected over a certain level of bonus, for a limited period. All banks, foreign as British, there would be submitted. Alistair Darling has already said in an interview with the philosophy of planned "at a time as difficult as this one, I think people understand that it is expected that the broadest shoulders bear the weight heavier, "he said.

If this new tax should raise the ire of the City, no doubt he should be more popular among the general public, where the rating of banks is the lowest. The latest bonuses earned by traders for major banks face because the British public, even though these institutions had been massive aid of the hundreds of billions of pounds to prevent collapse of financial system.

Public Accounts bloodless

The government hopes the measure to address tensions of its population, faces rising unemployment and an unprecedented rise in the deficit, which should approach or exceed this year's 12.4% of GDP.

The British traders would thus free of the controversy that accompanied the rescue of banks.The banks are expected to share their escape all taxation, although the government had proposed to levy a tax on profits of banks. However, despite the fact that this option would yield, according to the Times, two billion pounds with a 10% tax, the idea was abandoned, the Financial Times.

Still, this measure alone would not have a heavy impact on public finances for less bloodless. Gordon Brown was to deliver a speech today on the need to reduce public spending, including Prime Minister spot reduce by four the deficit. This necessarily will involve other tradeoffs.

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A first head of the FAO. He is a farmer and not least because it is the Vendee Guyau Luke, who was elected President of the United Nations Food and Agriculture. Currently a number of French Chambers of Agriculture (APCA), Luc Guyau gathered yesterday evening in Rome, 75 votes against 69 in Columbia Victor Charles Heard. The former president of the French Agricultural majority union, the FNSEA will tandem with Jacques Diouf, the current Director General of FAO. "By electing a farmer, the 190 member countries have expressed their gratitude to this profession that helps ensure a sufficient food supply and, thereby, the challenge of global food security," estimated the After the vote, Marie Besson, spokesman for the APCA. The challenge for Luke Guyau at FAO is huge while the number of hungry continues to grow.The organization does indeed more targets to reduce that number that exceeds a billion people.

"No numerical target for reducing world hunger