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For Christine Lagarde at the Ministry of Finance, Dominique Strauss-Kahn as IMF, Jean-Claude Trichet at the ECB (European Central Bank), confidence is at an appointment. The results of stress tests, tests of resistance of 91 European banks (including four French *) in an economic environment deteriorated, which will be announced Friday, will be good. Rumors even show a successful Franco-Belgian Dexia and the Belgian KBC, however fragile, in this review.

A view shared by Michael Emmanuel Thuy Munis and Hassim, respectively partner and manager of the consulting firm NPT Consultants specializes in the banking and insurance.

Lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – French banks (NBP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis) Will they pass the exam?

Without a doubt! These stress tests are a bit like the Bachelor: almost everyone will have it in Europe, which makes him lose credibility. In fact, the findings of these tests of resistance will not argue not much. What to watch, what are the assumptions.

Which are these assumptions?

Assumptions on growth, unemployment, inflation and real estate are set by the Bank of France. There are two scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. For example, last year, the first was zero growth and the second a recession of 2.5%.

From a standpoint of the bank as a company, the exercise was to downgrade by one notch rating default probability given to each level of the portfolio of the bank.

For example, if a risk of default is currently 2, the bank simulates a situation where the risk is rated 4. All branches of the portfolio and are staggered. On seeing the situation deteriorate and in its asset portfolio, the bank must protect themselves against-some of these risks and increase its mass of capital and liquidity to cope with any difficulties. This is also the challenge of the recommendations of Basel III, currently in talks.

These assumptions pose any real conditions of a major economic crisis?

The assumptions and asked did not reflect the reality of a major shock No fax cash loans. They lay the groundwork for a gradual and slow recovery, but do not take into account the possibility of a relapse into recession, for example (the famous "double-dip").

Neither of the possible restructuring of the debt of a country of weight outside the EU. As Russia. While in Europe, as was the case with Greece, for example, member states have shown they would join forces in order not to leave one of his bankruptcy, what will happen if Russia had to reschedule its debt? We can not know, but the situation would be catastrophic.

What are the political success of these stress tests?

There is a little over a year, the U.S. findings were providing stress testing of 19 banks very good (only two have failed), which had been boosted confidence in the U.S. banking system after the blow of Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.And after that 10% of U.S. institutions bancires put the key under the door!

European markets also need to be reassured, and policies have any interest.Ultimately, these stress tests are different goal in mind that European governments are behind their banks.

French banks can they go bankrupt?

In France, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, which spans international, will never be dropped by the French state, because the consequences of a failure of one of these institutions are unimaginable, especially in terms of employment.

If they had to go through another very difficult phase, the state will play its role of lender of last resort, even though the price of a huge debt.

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* BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis.

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Paris is burning there? This was the message last week by Century 21, one of the major networks of estate agents (850 in France). Prices of existing homes jumped 15% in the capital between the first halves 2009 and 2010. Let us all keep, replied two days later Fnaim: the trade association which brings together 12,000 independent agencies estimated up to 6.8%.

The two behemoths differ as much in their diagnoses of the French market. When Century 21 evaluates to 8.5% average increase in prices over the last twelve months, Fnaim reported an almost stagnant (+0.1%).

As regards property each looks after their own door, because nothing is more difficult to measure changes in prices of existing homes, all different from each other by definition. For its part, Century 21 invokes a simple method."No transaction is forgotten: the collection of information is done automatically from the software used when signing the preliminary contract (promise of sale)," said Laurent Vimont, network chair. Then simply compare the average price per square meter of transactions between two time periods to calculate the evolution.

Century 21 refutes the argument that sellers of "nice apartments" have retained their property during the recession of 2008-2009 winter to put them back on the market in greater numbers in the first half of 2010 when the economy restarts. That does it not distort price comparisons from one period to another? "Not because we are working on samples large enough for this" quality effect "does not play. Our transactions have focused on 23,200 units in France in the first half of 2010, with 1536 sales in Paris, "says one.

Battle figures

Fnaim whose records are also on the "promise of sale", is based on a more sophisticated methodology and relatively delicate absolutely free credit score. "We correct the observed effects of price structures, including the size, location, comfort items, etc. …», explains Nicolas Thouvenin, the Director General of Fnaim. It also boasts a high number of transactions (5000 per month), 10% of the national market.

This method is quite close to the observation model established by notaries, with scientific backing from INSEE for 20 years. Except as notaries, considered the "justices" in statistics, working on sales contracts themselves, so with a delay of at least three months.Other disability, notary fees are not legal obligation to back the information to their rooms (85% do in Paris).

The Housing Secretariat is closely following this battle of numbers. After asking the National Council of Statistical Information (CNIS) a general report on "improving statistics, real estate and construction," which was presented in late March, Benoist Appeared plans to implement some of its recommendations "from the start," says one to his office.

Notaries will now be forced to disclose all their transactions to feed price indices. And they will work on the "pre-contracts" in order to better fit the situation. The reform should come into force from the fourth quarter of 2010 in Ile-de-France and the first quarter of 2011 in the rest of the country, says one.In addition, a device "calibration for private producers of statistics (like Century 21 and Fnaim) would be operational by spring 2011. A sort of tutelage that professionals look more or less enthusiasm and skepticism.

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Diplomatic relations between Switzerland and Germany could still suffer. After the controversial purchase of a CD from Switzerland containing lists of suspected tax evaders in Germany launches massive search operation in the German subsidiary of Swiss bank Credit Suisse. Objective: to update the 1100 alleged customers of the bank suspected of evading taxes, and employees of the bank suspected to have helped.

The raids took place simultaneously in 13 cities and were conducted by 150 officers. Credit Suisse, which remained silent on the subject, has finally reacted by saying "cooperate with the authorities." "This is an ongoing investigation, so we can give more information," says the facility.

Unsurprisingly

Since March 19 this year, the Dusseldorf prosecutor's office suggested that he was investigating cons these clients in the fight against tax evasion carried out by the government. The purchase of the CD has already led almost 12.000à denounce himself, according to last count, in late March.

Credit Suisse is not the only Swiss bank in the sights of German authorities. UBS industry leader, is also subject of an investigation, not prosecution, but the authority of financial sector supervision Authority (BaFin).

Negotiations stalled

These searches involved in full discussions between Bern and Berlin on improving the exchange of information between the two countries payday loans in 1 hour. Both governments wish to reach an agreement that also aims to avoid double taxation.

In late March, the finance ministers of the two states signed a convention in this sense, but it is still not signed. Both governments face difficult issues such as control of German assets placed in Switzerland. A working group has also been mandated to expand the proposals and make findings in the fall.

Meanwhile, the convention is not in force, allowing Germany to put pressure on Swiss institutions. The spokesman for the German Finance Ministry wants yet reassuring: "We assume that the negotiations with Switzerland will continue to be constructive and to unfold in an atmosphere of mutual trust." He says they will, if successful, to "render obsolete" files using File Swiss bank clients stolen and resold.

The German technique is the same as that adopted in respect of Liechtenstein. In 2008, the Secret Service had bought a CD of stolen banking data, to 4.2 million euros. Having conducted several surveys, they managed to uncover many fraudsters, including the former boss of Deutsche Post, Klaus Zumwinkel. Under pressure, Liechtenstein was finally ratified an agreement on exchange of information on German assets located within the principality.

The quest for investors to be difficult for Tony Hayward, BP's boss. According to the special edition of the newsletter Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) to be published Monday, the emirate of Abu Dhabi would be reluctant to invest in the oil. The richest emirate in the federation of the UAE would not be accountable to the U.S. Department of Justice, which wants to want to be informed of any transfer of assets from BP. The Sovereign wealth fund Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), became in 2007 the largest shareholder in Citigroup, is already in full court battle with the giant American banker whom he accused of fraud.

If the information is confirmed, it would be a setback for Tony Hayward, last Wednesday, went to Abu Dhabi, to convince the influential Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed to buy 10% stake BP.

Abu Dhabi, however, may "want to take stakes in certain assets of BP in the region, but provided they have no problems with the U.S. Department of Justice," says MEES.

Leverage counterparts

In addition to the SWFs in the Middle East, BP tries to seduce her American counterparts. According to the Sunday Times this Sunday, the tanker is currently in exclusive negotiations with the U.S. Apache Corporation to sell up to $ 12 billion of assets, including its share in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, the largest field North America. Apache, which is worth 29 billion dollars in stock, has already signed with BP repurchases in the past.But this operation would be of a different scale: Prudhoe Bay produces 390,000 barrels per day, or 15% of the production of the North Sea.

The partners in the field of BP, Exxon and Conoco Philips, will certainly have rights of first refusal on the part of BP. This dernierpourrait allow them to buy if they offer the same price Apache. The Sunday Times also understands that the U.S. government would have allowed Exxon to study a possible takeover of BP.

The Sunday Times added that BP would also soon sell its 60% interest in Pan American Energy, a producer in Argentina. The acquisition of this share worth $ 9 billion Chinese CNOOC and try the Argentinian Bridas. BP is also expected to sell various other assets, including its activities in Venezuela and Colombia, worth one billion dollars, as well as those in Vietnam, a similar value.

The government is continuing its investigation

All these operations are part of the constitution by BP to a reserve fund of 20 billion dollars (15.8 billion euros) pledged U.S. authorities to ensure the cleanup costs and damages associated with the tide black.

So he has launched an operation which is expected to completely contain the leak, BP is still feeling the pressure from U.S. authorities. The Justice Department has announced that Sunday, through the voice of Minister Eric Holder would continue to investigate the causes of the spill that pollutes the Gulf of Mexico from late April to determine whether to proceed with indictments.

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European Banks Are they healthy? The question that torments the markets will soon find an answer. Indeed, European leaders have agreed to the request of France and gave the green light to publish the detailed results of stress tests (stress test "in English) which are subject garndes their banks. The 27 hoping to reassure markets worried discover surprises.

These reviews are intended to reflect the ability of banks to withstand extreme financial and economic conditions. Currently, those made at European level on a score of major banks remain confidential.Last year, only general trends were made public, including the fact that European banks were sufficiently capitalized to face a severe deterioration of macroeconomic conditions.

First published in late July

Nicolas Sarkozy has confirmed at his press conference that the publication of these tests would take place in late July as desired by Paris. Earlier in the day, Christine Lagarde, French Minister of Economy, had told Reuters: "I am very positive about this publication. There is nothing worse than the rumors and doubts about the banks. " The Minister is confident, remembering that French banks have so far yielded positive results. These displays of the solvency ratios for the time, satisfactory. In the opposite case, Christine Lagarde said the banks to recapitalize.

Madrid triggers debate

The day before, the Spanish central bank had announced the forthcoming publication of the results of these tests. The newspaper El Pais had found the ad "unprecedented in the euro area. The Madrid Institute hopes to dispel the doubts now hanging on the strength of its banking sector. The Spanish governor of the Bank believes that the current rumors greatly amplify the difficulties of the Spanish financial industry. He hopes that the markets "are fully aware of the situation in the Spanish banking system."

Banks reluctant

Further to the announcement in Madrid, the German government long reluctant, finally decided to give the green light too. But Berlin has yet to convince its banks. German institutions showed far opposed the publication of these results.

Successful tests of Moody's

The European Central Bank will also favors the publication of these tests. In the eyes of the central bank, the operation of transparency is able to reassure the markets. And regulators have reason to be optimistic. Indeed, European banks have recently passed the tests of strength by Moody's. The rating agency has increased the stress tests to thirty European banks from ten countries, and concluded that they have a level of capital sufficient to take further losses.

The Awards have finally found the way up. The CAC 40 has changed course several times in the morning to finally get its act together in the afternoon, encouraged by Wall Street. After six consecutive sessions in the red, the CAC 40 advanced 1.96%, to end the session at 3 446.77 points, a turnover of around 4 billion euros.

Other major European markets have also hoisted the green flag. In Frankfurt, the Dax gained 1.98%, and London, the Footsie has won 1.15%. Even mood on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones gained 1.16% and the Nasdaq 1.66% shortly after the close of European stock.

On Wall Street investors were awaiting the publication of the "Beige Book" of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the U.S. central bank, a snapshot report of the U.S. economy.As expected by analysts, the report confirmed a rise in economic activity, but no sign of inflation, reinforcing the idea that the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates.

Exports leapt chinoisent

They were also awaiting the speech of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who was to testify before the Budget Committee of the House of Representatives in the afternoon quick pay day loan. Unsurprisingly, Ben Bernanke has confirmed the speech he gave Monday saying that the economic recovery appeared to be "solid" in the United States.

More good news for the markets, a senior Chinese official, the country's exports have jumped by about 50% in May compared to same month of 2009. This figure should be officially released Thursday pushed Asian stock markets Wednesday.If confirmed, it would exceed by far the expectations of analysts who expect an increase of just over 30%.

In Paris, the other major stock markets, investors were engaged in an intense hunt for bargains on financial and cyclical stocks.

Societe Generale, Arcelor Mittal or ST Microelectronics were among the highest increases of ACC 40.

The tax shelters will soon be planed 10%, Francois Fillon warned on Thursday morning in the East Republican. After announcing in early May that he wanted to make five billion euros in savings over five years on tax shelters, the prime minister said his program. The government opted Does the deletion of niches, or a general decline in their level? "Both," explained Francois Fillon.

"In each case, some niches will be deleted. And there will be a movement of the plane by 10%. With exceptions because it should not increase the cost of labor, "he says. Over the years, it is indeed accumulated more than 400 tax loopholes, intended for particular social groups or economic sectors. In total, the Telemachus to win for the state accounts for almost 75 billion euros.

For in order to cope with a deficit which currently stands at 7.5% of GDP, the resources available to the government are now limited, said the Premier. A tax increase seems difficult in France, both the level of tax burden is already high. "Within the euro area, we are among those who have the highest rate. Again, our margins are limited, "said the Premier. More limited, for example, those of our German neighbors.

No removal of tax charges

Same for the amount of charges. "In some sectors, the competitiveness gap with Germany reached up to 20%. We can not win over the German economy, "said Francois Fillon. No question, therefore, to remove some relief.Neither, as announced Wednesday Georges Tron, the Secretary of State for Public Service, to lower or freeze the salaries of civil servants, which may depend on the success of pension reform.

Only possible levers mentioned by the Prime Minister in the East Republican, in addition to the tax loopholes, reducing social spending and a freeze on the allocation of local communities. "But we will not touch the RSA," said Francois Fillon.

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From 1 July 2010 will require some additional documents to send a letter. The price of the stamp of the priority letter weighing less than 20 grams will increase from 0.56 to 0.58 euro, an increase of 3.5%. The economic costs will also increase by two cents to 0.53 euros.

This is the sixth increase in eight years. The price of the stamp for a letter of less than 20 grams had already earned a penny last year. But Post said she "is in the average tariffs in Europe even as the universal service commitments of the post office and geographic constraints are higher in France."

"The rising price of stamps will have a minimal impact on the household budget, or approximately 0.10 ? per month per household," the statement said.In addition, The Post said they considered the economic situation by adjusting charges for companies depending on their situation: there will be no change for major mailers and the increase will be 0.6% Small and medium enterprises.

The NYSE is changing the balance Monday shortly after opening in a market that remains ill at ease with prosecution by the U.S. stock market regulator against the bank Goldman Sachs. For its part, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 10.21 points to 11,021.87 points and the Nasdaq, dominated by technology, from 0.49 point to 2481.75 points. The broader index Standard & Poor's 500 ceded its 0.01% (0.09 points) to 1192.04 points.

The surprise decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to file a fraud complaint against Goldman Sachs has been a bombshell Friday on Wall Street. The shock wave spread in Asia this morning.

The NYSE has ended sharply lower Friday, led by falling bank shares, after the shock wave created by Goldman Sachs.The Dow Jones lost 1.13% and the Nasdaq 1.37%.

This latest scandal should support, with the American public, the banking reform projects of the Obama Administration. In addition, the Wall Street Journal, the SEC would consider other "fraud" banks like Deutsche Bank, UBS, Merrill Lynch … on securitization transactions.

The attack comes at the worst time in the open ball of publication of quarterly results to Wall Street. This week the results of 11 companies comprising the Dow Jones and 123 companies in the S & P 500 are expected on Wall Street.

Technology stocks are concerned now with IBM, Yahoo and Apple Tuesday, the day after Qualcomm or Microsoft on Thursday.

Financial stocks will be under the microscope. Citigroup (7.50% to $ 2.15) announced better than expected quarterly accounts.Goldman (-1.04% to 158.94 dollars) and State Street (1.40% to 47.15 dollars) will release their quarterly results tomorrow and Wells Fargo on Wednesday.

Also expected figures for regional banks like U.S. Bancorp, KeyCorp or institutions specialized in consumer credit, including Capital One or Travelers. Other sectors will also be represented with Telecom (AT & T), health (Johnson & Johnson, Abbott, Amgen ..), industry (EMC) or the OEM oil (Schlumberger) …

For specialists Aurel BGC, the risk of "making profit" is high after the recent rise in the U.S. market.Among the uncertainties on the bank, the risk of disappointment on publications and the absence of major economic indicator that can reassure the markets, caution this week on the markets.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro continued its fall against the dollar, suffering prosecutions by the SEC against Sachs and uncertainties which still surround the situation in Greece. In the morning, the euro was at 1.3448 dollars against 1.3496 dollars late Friday meeting.

After starting the week very uncertain, Friday's meeting marks a consolidation of most Asian stock markets in a very active market with the approach of the end of Japanese fiscal year March 31.

With the exception of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong who abandons 0.20% to 21,288 points, all major Asian markets closed the session up: Tokyo, whose flagship index, the Nikkei 225 is pressed over of 10,800 points, closing at 0.69% at 10,811 points.

From the other side areas, fire is almost green at the end: Singapore rose 0.34% to 2923 points, Bombay climbed 0.21% to 17,555 points, Sydney advance of 0.19% to 4872 points, Seoul ended up 0.59% to 3540 points and Taiwan concluded a small increase from 0.04% to 7 cheapest personal loan rates . 889 points.

U.S. indicators released Thursday had to reassure Asian markets. Only Hong Kong so this ends up on a bad note in a difficult situation between China and the United States.Chinese leaders have asked their American counterparts not to "politicize" the issue of the exchange rate of the yuan, on pain of "complicating" the situation.

Crude prices were down Friday in electronic trading in Asia, reflecting the stronger U.S. dollar, dealers said.

In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for April delivery yielded 29 cents to 81.91 dollars while the barrel of Brent North Sea for May delivery dropped 26 cents to 81.22 dollars.