The election of Francois Hollande, Sunday marked the end of one of the major political acts of the quinquennium of Nicolas Sarkozy, the non-replacement of staff on two retiring. A policy that led to the elimination of 150,000 jobs in the State Civil Service from 2008 to 2012.

The socialist president wants to create the contrary, under his five-year, 60,000 positions in 5000 and National Education in the police, gendarmerie and justice. These recruitments will rise gradually in charge. But as from September 2012, Francois Hollande affect 1000 additional teachers in French schools. However, the new president said he would not increase the total number of state officials in the next five years.

In light of new posts in the Education, Interior and Justice, the stabilization of the workforce including the abolition of jobs elsewhere. The entourage of Francois Hollande said that the army has already planned to reduce its workforce by 8,000 jobs per year and that is enough to "find" to delete 5000 jobs per year in other departments. And also to emphasize that there are 60,000 jobs in duplication between state and local governments.

Officials should not expect a boom in terms of pay. Francois Hollande promised to quickly organize a conference with social service unions, but also announced it would not be possible to do everything at once. Encrypted program also provides for a stabilization of the payroll of the state. Officials saw their index point, which is the basis for their compensation, frozen in 2011 and 2012. This is likely to last.  

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In 2018, there will be two newcomers in the Parisian sky: two all-glass towers whose upper portion is tilted in wave form. Achievement of 500 million euros by Jean Nouvel and funded by an investment fund Quebec, Ivanhoe Cambridge, and an American, Hines.

Specifically, this set will find its place in the ZAC Seine Rive Gauche, the area is being completely remodeled, close to the BNF (Bibliothèque nationale de France) in the thirteenth arrondissement. The first skyscraper peak at 231 m with 38 floors. His little brother will reach 115 meters, 24 floors. Clearly, these IGH (tall buildings) will be much lower than the highest tower of France, First (231 meters and 50 storeys), inaugurated in Defence in May 2011.

"Our city should not become a museum city"

But these skyscrapers, which will be occupied by offices and a hotel, have a symbolic value. They will mark the return of the towers in Paris after a long wait. With their design on tile anti-friendly design and unimaginative, high-rise buildings built in the 1970s (Montparnasse tower, towers along the Seine and the Olympics in the thirteenth arrondissement) had disgusted the people of this type of construction. "We decided to rebuild the towers in Paris because land is scarce and must be used to best effect and because our capital must not become a museum city," argues Anne Hidalgo, first deputy mayor of Paris in charge of urbanism. This policy does not unanimously. The Greens, for example, are opposed.

However, these two skyscrapers of Jean Nouvel announce other. In 2016, a tower of 160 meters and 40 floors, designed by architect Renzo Piano to house the TGI (High Court), should be delivered to the Batignolles in the seventeenth arrondissement. If the project is proceeding normally, Triangle tower installed Porte de Versailles in the fifteenth district would be delivered in 2017. "And we have three other projects of a turn in the thirteenth arrondissement, on the same area as the skyscrapers of Jean Nouvel," said Hidalgo.

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SMEs have suffered worst of the credit squeeze between 2007 and 2010 than larger firms, experts say that the OECD published the first report on "Financing SMEs and Entrepreneurs" by sifting through data from 18 countries ranging from Canada to Sweden via South Korea, France, Hungary, Finland, the United States.

SMEs have been hard hit by the crisis in 2008 and 2009. Confidence indicators of SMEs in OECD countries have fallen to levels lower than those of the 1990s. Direct consequence of falling demand from mid-2008, SMEs were down to their turnover. Companies that export have suffered more than those living in their home market only because of the decline in global trade.

Risk clients unattractive

SMEs have also been handicapped by the lengthening of payment periods which continued in 2010, despite a slight improvement in the economic situation. They have experienced cash flow difficulties. Their financial situation has deteriorated. Faced with this deal, their banks have lent less in most countries in 2008 and 2009. In 2010, financial institutions continued to reduce their lending in Finland, New Zealand, Portugal, Slovenia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

In the euro area, the rejection rate of applications for credit from 12% in first half 2009 to 18% in the second half of that year. A country is an exception: France, where the percentage of refusals decreased from 12% to 7% through the introduction of credit mediation and government decisions. The public financial institution specialized in SMEs OSEO has provided 12 billion euros of loans guaranteed in 2009. According Oséo, 50% of companies having benefited from the exceptional warranty cash claim to have avoided bankruptcy. In 2010, the refusal rate financing amounted to 11% in the euro area.

Considered unattractive risk clients, SMEs were asked to provide more guarantees for credit. They paid more bank financing than large groups, despite lower interest rates. According to figures released Wednesday by the Bank of France, the cost of short-term credit to businesses rose from 2.49% to 2.42% between October 2011 and January 2012. But the cost of borrowing in the medium and long term for companies rose 4.06% to 4.21%.

The policy of the banks says that the share of SME loans, which varies according to country, between 12% and 30% of total loans to businesses, has fallen when it is already well below their weight economy and their role in job creation in normal times. Not surprisingly, the number of SMEs in difficulty increased. In 2009, bankruptcies increased in the studied countries except Canada, South Korea and Portugal. They were up in 2010 in Denmark, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia and Switzerland. Although they have declined in France, Finland, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK, they remained at a level much higher than in 2007.

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The government deficit in France in 2013 is forecast at 3.9% of gross domestic product (GDP), far from the 3% target set by the government, according to forecasts biannual International Monetary Fund (IMF) published today.

This year, the deficit would reach 4.6%, says the IMF, against 4.4% in commitment from France to its European partners.

In its "Monitor of public finances", the IMF predicts that France approaches the symbolic threshold of 3% in 2014, with a year behind the official schedule. These projections mean that the next president, whoever he is, will soon adopt a new fiscal tightening after the election of May 6 Indeed, the president-candidate Nicolas Sarkozy and his Socialist rival Francois Hollande, the poll favorite, have both pledged to cut the deficit to 3% in 2013.

For its part, the public debt of France is expected to increase next year the symbolic threshold of 90% of GDP to 90.8%, while all candidates hope to contain it to below this threshold. It would commence thereafter a slow reflux.

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"If we do not respect the line to reduce our deficits and our debt to the minute interest rates will rise." Wednesday, Nicolas Sarkozy has gone a step further in the dramatization. After Francois Fillon, who suggested Tuesday that a hint of victory would boost Francois Hollande attacks against the euro area, the president candidate has warned against any slippage in the path of fiscal consolidation.

To raise the specter of an uncontrollable ascent rates, the current majority is based on digging for a few days the gap between interest rates ten years French (2.93% on Wednesday) and German ( 1.79%). At 114 basis points, after reaching 135 points Tuesday, this spread has actually widened over 30 points in a month.

Should we see a sign of growing distrust of markets in anticipation of a victory for the left, and expect a speculative attack against France after the second round? If the debate on this subject undoubtedly grows, nothing concrete has yet support this thesis. "The widening gap in interest rates between France and Germany is primarily due to lower rates to ten years German, while at the same time the French rate increase very little," said Patrick Jacq, BNP Paribas. In fact, France borrowed Wednesday cheaper than January 1 – the rate at ten years then stood at 3.20%. At the height of the crisis in the euro area, last fall, the OAT to ten years had reached a yield of 3.70% and the gap with Germany was around 190 points. The position occupied by Francois Hollande favorite in the presidential polls did not even affect the bond markets.

The fact remains that, beyond political considerations alone, the French debt will find itself under strong pressure in the coming days. Several factors will combine. The first is technical. As of Monday, April 16, the derivatives market Eurex will boost the marketing of futures contracts on the OAT need a personal loan with bad credit. Some see an opportunity for traders to speculate on France. "The danger is actually involved as a hedging tool transformed into an instrument of credit risk management," says Patrick Jacq. In other words, that some operators are betting on a French credit event.

Community constraint

Precisely, the second is the threat to a likely downgrade of France by Moody's, which can occur anytime during the next four weeks. On this theme, moreover, that the Socialist candidate responded to the attacks of the UMP: "If there was loss of triple A, is due to the left or right because of?" , asked Francois Hollande in response to declining rating by Standard & Poor's mid-January.

But the main constraint to be exercised on the French debt will be at the community. By coincidence, in the days following the second round, the European Commission must publish its report on the growth prospects of French public finances. However, this report will not consider the program of President-elect. "There is a risk that this be interpreted by markets as a distrust of the new president," worries do we camp in the Netherlands. In fact, it is on structural reforms of the future government that markets deem the French debt. "The benchmark in Europe now, it's Mario Monti and his reform of the labor market," says a senior European official. From this point of view, Francois Hollande is a real risk, arguing such measures as hiring officials or the questioning, even partial, of the pension reform.

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According to diplomatic sources, the ministers agreed to effectively negotiate with the banks at a discount of "at least 50%" against a target of 21% decided on July 21 with the banking sector. They thus de facto endorsed the conclusions of an expert report which was presented by the troika of donor funds in Greece (EU, ECB and IMF).The paper believes that a discount of 50 or 60% hope to stabilize Greece without having to increase in the amount of gigantic international loans that have already been promised.

A "discount" is the term used in relation to the financial depreciation of the value of loans taken by creditors in this case private banks and investment funds that hold government debt. A discount of 50% borne by the private sector, the second program of financial support pledged July 21 to Greece, however, should be slightly revised upwards with government loans (Europe and IMF) to 114 billion euros, against 109 billion euros.To maintain the envelope of 109 billion euros unchanged, it would bring the discount to 60%, according to calculations by experts.

• Banks recapitalized to the tune of 100 billion euros

The question is whether the banks that have so far dragged its feet to give the pot, will accept a negotiated settlement does not pass through a default of Greece said "messy" serious consequences. "It's a negotiation s'entame," said Didier Reynders, Belgian Finance Minister, before a meeting with his colleagues throughout the European Union on Saturday. These discussions, held in Brussels with representatives of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the banking lobby, "still, there is no agreement yet," said a source told AFP familiar with the matter.

In return for the effort required on the Greek claims, it is intended to recapitalize European banks to the tune of nearly 100 billion euros. The subject was Saturday in the agenda of the ministerial meeting. According to sources cited by Reuters, an agreement in principle was reached by European finance ministers on the recapitalization. European diplomats interviewed by AFP were less categorical in the late afternoon. "There is no agreement on the recapitalization, it gets stuck a little." According to one of these diplomatic sources, "Spain insists on having a comprehensive, not only on the recapitalization of banks but also on strengthening the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). " On the other hand, "the ministers are trying to agree on the minimum capital."

The European Banking Authority (EBA) has proposed that banks reach a level of capital of 9% by mid-2012. A diplomat acknowledged that some countries in the viewfinder of the markets, like Italy, Spain or Portugal, feared that the recapitalization will further undermine public finances.

• The Fund will not support a bank

Moreover, the French proposal to grant a banking license to the Fund support the euro area (EFSF) so he can refinance with the European Central Bank "is no longer on the table," said Minister Dutch Finance Jan Kees de Jager. Only two options are being discussed to increase the firepower of the device, he told reporters Saturday.These two tracks on the agenda now that the mechanism acts as a partial insurance of the public debt of countries in difficulty or higher participation of the IMF to the device, according to a German government source. But there is "significant differences between countries" on the issue, said Jan Kees de Jager.

How to leverage the capacity of the EFSF was the main sticking point between Berlin and Paris at the approach of the EU summit. France, worried about its budget deficit and are "triple AAA" prefer tap into the existing European funds, starting with the ECB. Germany, also sensitive to the separation of powers as inflation risks, refuses anything resembling a crisis by printing money in Europe.France was not only to advocate the involvement of the ECB, arguing that this system worked very well in the United States or Great Britain. She was supported by Spain, Italy or Belgium.

The European Relief Fund currently has a lending capacity of 440 billion euros, part of which is already committed for Ireland and Portugal. This envelope is considered insufficient to prevent contagion of the debt crisis in countries as large as Italy and Spain, increasingly in the firing line of credit rating agencies.European countries negotiate so hard for weeks on the best way, via a "leverage" to multiply by up to five response capacity of the Fund's financial debt of fragile countries.

(With agencies)

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Poster of the 2011 edition of the Festival of grandfathers. DR.

Concordant sources, in fact, Dexia, the Deposit Bank and postal workers, under the watchful eye of the state, to create a new bank, public, local communities. Friday, none of the parties did not wish to make comments.

The new entity will take over long held by Crédit Local de France (CLF), ancestor of Dexia, with mayors, councils and other French regions.Its creation would be an opportunity to ease the minds of elected officials, heated by the explosion of interest on certain loans "toxic", including underwritten by Dexia before 2008. The new state-owned bank could put forward a much more wise.

Above all, his arrival on the market would open the tap of credit to local communities. In a financial crisis, Dexia and its competitors, such as savings banks, Societe Generale and foreign banks have largely abandoned this market in recent months.

The Postal Bank and the Caisse des Depots would hold society together, Dexia that may remain a shareholder.They should also take control of all or part of the loan portfolio of existing communities with Dexia French (70 billion euros) and Dexia Municipal Agency: such operators shall ensure, by means of mortgage bonds, the refinancing of the commitment of Dexia. A new ownership would bring also the financial strength necessary to maintain its "AAA" rating.

Pirouette history

For Dexia, the operation could be an opportunity to significantly reduce its balance sheet totaling more than 500 billion euros guaranteed online personal loans. It has already been reduced by 15% year on year, thanks to the divestment of assets made in the first half. But despite this recent treatment, the group remains fragile, especially in the current distrust of markets against financial groups in Europe.

"The idea is on the table.Its terms are far from being arrested, "said a source familiar with the matter. The role of Dexia, the volume of the transferred assets, their quality – particularly with regard to loans that are the subject of disputes with communities who have subscribed – all of which are still on the table. Many criteria which depend then the financial terms of the transaction.

The reactive pattern of lines of inquiry explored from 2008-2009. Even then, the idea of ​​the deposits of La Banque Postale deal with Dexia loans (assets of French local authorities are placed in the Treasury) was considered. The arrival of the CDC in the capital of La Banque Postale has facilitated the project. The project has also the flavor of a sacred spin the story to the Fund: Crédit Local de France was born of a branch of the Caisse des Depots, which then end up twenty years after a historic activity.But for the CDC, the issue is complex: it has (with the NOC) 20% of Dexia, it has recapitalized with the Belgian shareholders in 2008 to see the action rolled back in recent months. Perform an operation which finally reduces the bank's balance sheet and liquidity requirements would constitute a significant step forward. This is what its proponents would argue with the board, including representatives from Belgium, possibly as early as next Tuesday.

The director of the institution states that "the weak growth and fragile balance sheets, those States, financial institutions and households, reinforce one another, fueling the crisis of confidence and slow demand, investment and job creation. " For Christine Lagarde, "there is too much debt in the system.The uncertainties in the States in all advanced economies, the banks in Europe and on households in the United States. "

To "common front"

Since this vicious circle "is gaining momentum," the IMF said that "the time is not the withdrawal, to halftone or palliative No teletrack payday loans." One solution can work: the "common front". More alarming than ever, Christine Lagarde warned that "if the developed countries fall into recession, emerging markets will not be spared. In fact nobody will. "

Wednesday already, Christine Lagarde called for the establishment of a "collective action, immediate and bold." She asked especially to countries that have the fiscal space to support growth. "My role is to ensure that this call to action is heard. I can not believe that governments do not share my opinion, "she explained.He added that "countries have an incentive to act collectively in the interest of the economy."

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