Pensions: the Government is preparing the battle

24th July

Place the masons and painters! Members of the Committee on Social Affairs of the National Assembly completed late Thursday afternoon, discussing the draft law on pensions, with a few hours ahead of schedule. Members will now leave the Palais Bourbon completely delivered to artisans, who have already begun the usual summer work. Return scheduled Tuesday, Sept. 7, even on Monday night at 6 for a special session will begin by examining the same text, but this time in the Chamber.

"It is in times of transition, summarized perhaps one at the Elysee. The real battle will take place from September. "The for Sarkozy are well aware that this first parliamentary stage was a formality. Not surprisingly, the debates have been looped smoothly."The Socialists have just wanted to make a coup by breaking the lock-in twitter discussions with their phone," is a counselor. What the left willingly admits. For now, she preferred surf the weakening of Labour Minister Caught in the case Bettencourt. Godsend for the Socialists, who are careful not to request his resignation.

Paradoxically, the majority seemed more worried by the progress of the case and its component Bettencourt Woerth that by the turn of the debate on pensions. "The left is going clubbing Woerth in September. He held up? "Wonders already a Minister. The Elysee hopes that the summer break will reduce the pressure. Nicolas Sarkozy and François Fillon reiterated that Eric Woerth defend indeed the text on Sept. 7. In other words, he will not be driven to resign by then."It is quiet because we know there is nothing in the record," says the Prime Minister.

"Everything will be decided in September. We are ready for battle. But it also depends on the mobilization in the streets, "says one seat in the PS. Clearly, the left hopes to build on part of the public. Even if the opponents and proponents of reform are divided into two shares more or less equal bad credit pay day loans.

Unions united

Unions, too, prepare to maturity. For September 7 will also be a new day of strikes and protests against the reform that SF has, once again, on Thursday asked the "withdrawal". In reality, most organizations do not believe and do not even dream to win concessions on key points, beginning with the postponement of the age to 62 years.However, they have not conceded the changes on other aspects of the text during the parliamentary debate.

They rely for that on the "pressure" of the street. Will they go over the two million demonstrators, after 1.9 million announced on the evening of the last day of action – successful – last June 24? Not easy to mobilize massively, just days after school starts. Therefore, the central plan to continue their campaign throughout the summer, beach tour in the CFDT distributed a booklet "educational" on reform and its "alternative" possible, the CGT.

The unions will have an advantage: their unity restored. Having refused to sign for months, FOR has joined its competitors, and the CFE-CGC has done the same.It is the only organization to accept the decline of legal age, but she believes that the conditions there pose – including a strong financial closure of the reform – are not met.

Faced with this united front, the government has chosen to keep the ballast drop. He has done at this stage, no specific proposals on issues which he is willing to develop: difficulty, and long careers polypensionnés.

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Controversy over property prices

17th July

Paris is burning there? This was the message last week by Century 21, one of the major networks of estate agents (850 in France). Prices of existing homes jumped 15% in the capital between the first halves 2009 and 2010. Let us all keep, replied two days later Fnaim: the trade association which brings together 12,000 independent agencies estimated up to 6.8%.

The two behemoths differ as much in their diagnoses of the French market. When Century 21 evaluates to 8.5% average increase in prices over the last twelve months, Fnaim reported an almost stagnant (+0.1%).

As regards property each looks after their own door, because nothing is more difficult to measure changes in prices of existing homes, all different from each other by definition. For its part, Century 21 invokes a simple method."No transaction is forgotten: the collection of information is done automatically from the software used when signing the preliminary contract (promise of sale)," said Laurent Vimont, network chair. Then simply compare the average price per square meter of transactions between two time periods to calculate the evolution.

Century 21 refutes the argument that sellers of "nice apartments" have retained their property during the recession of 2008-2009 winter to put them back on the market in greater numbers in the first half of 2010 when the economy restarts. That does it not distort price comparisons from one period to another? "Not because we are working on samples large enough for this" quality effect "does not play. Our transactions have focused on 23,200 units in France in the first half of 2010, with 1536 sales in Paris, "says one.

Battle figures

Fnaim whose records are also on the "promise of sale", is based on a more sophisticated methodology and relatively delicate absolutely free credit score. "We correct the observed effects of price structures, including the size, location, comfort items, etc. …», explains Nicolas Thouvenin, the Director General of Fnaim. It also boasts a high number of transactions (5000 per month), 10% of the national market.

This method is quite close to the observation model established by notaries, with scientific backing from INSEE for 20 years. Except as notaries, considered the "justices" in statistics, working on sales contracts themselves, so with a delay of at least three months.Other disability, notary fees are not legal obligation to back the information to their rooms (85% do in Paris).

The Housing Secretariat is closely following this battle of numbers. After asking the National Council of Statistical Information (CNIS) a general report on "improving statistics, real estate and construction," which was presented in late March, Benoist Appeared plans to implement some of its recommendations "from the start," says one to his office.

Notaries will now be forced to disclose all their transactions to feed price indices. And they will work on the "pre-contracts" in order to better fit the situation. The reform should come into force from the fourth quarter of 2010 in Ile-de-France and the first quarter of 2011 in the rest of the country, says one.In addition, a device "calibration for private producers of statistics (like Century 21 and Fnaim) would be operational by spring 2011. A sort of tutelage that professionals look more or less enthusiasm and skepticism.

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Germany searched the offices of Credit Suisse

14th July

Diplomatic relations between Switzerland and Germany could still suffer. After the controversial purchase of a CD from Switzerland containing lists of suspected tax evaders in Germany launches massive search operation in the German subsidiary of Swiss bank Credit Suisse. Objective: to update the 1100 alleged customers of the bank suspected of evading taxes, and employees of the bank suspected to have helped.

The raids took place simultaneously in 13 cities and were conducted by 150 officers. Credit Suisse, which remained silent on the subject, has finally reacted by saying "cooperate with the authorities." "This is an ongoing investigation, so we can give more information," says the facility.

Unsurprisingly

Since March 19 this year, the Dusseldorf prosecutor's office suggested that he was investigating cons these clients in the fight against tax evasion carried out by the government. The purchase of the CD has already led almost 12.000à denounce himself, according to last count, in late March.

Credit Suisse is not the only Swiss bank in the sights of German authorities. UBS industry leader, is also subject of an investigation, not prosecution, but the authority of financial sector supervision Authority (BaFin).

Negotiations stalled

These searches involved in full discussions between Bern and Berlin on improving the exchange of information between the two countries payday loans in 1 hour. Both governments wish to reach an agreement that also aims to avoid double taxation.

In late March, the finance ministers of the two states signed a convention in this sense, but it is still not signed. Both governments face difficult issues such as control of German assets placed in Switzerland. A working group has also been mandated to expand the proposals and make findings in the fall.

Meanwhile, the convention is not in force, allowing Germany to put pressure on Swiss institutions. The spokesman for the German Finance Ministry wants yet reassuring: "We assume that the negotiations with Switzerland will continue to be constructive and to unfold in an atmosphere of mutual trust." He says they will, if successful, to "render obsolete" files using File Swiss bank clients stolen and resold.

The German technique is the same as that adopted in respect of Liechtenstein. In 2008, the Secret Service had bought a CD of stolen banking data, to 4.2 million euros. Having conducted several surveys, they managed to uncover many fraudsters, including the former boss of Deutsche Post, Klaus Zumwinkel. Under pressure, Liechtenstein was finally ratified an agreement on exchange of information on German assets located within the principality.

In June, the U.S. has destroyed jobs

3rd July

The U.S. economy has begun to destroy jobs, after five months of net creation. In June, the number of job losses in the U.S. totaled 125,000 jobs including in the public, according to figures from the Labor Department. The figure was pulled down by the public sector, the end of the census causing the departure of 225,000 temporary workers hired for the occasion.

More importantly, the private sector alone has created 83,000 jobs. Is much better than the 33,000 net new jobs in the month of May However, analysts expected a figure close to 112,000. "We're going in the right direction but we do not go fast enough for many Americans. We are not moving fast enough for me either, "responded the president Barack Obama.

The increase in the number of private sector jobs due to "modest increases in various industries."The leisure industry in particular has created 28,000 jobs before the summer. Business services hired 21,000 people. Note, the industry continued to create jobs (9,000). The construction sector has meanwhile also destroys jobs (22 cash till payday.000), hit by a decline in new construction.

"Beyond these figures rather in line with expectations, the disappointment is the hours worked and wages," noted economists Exane-BNP Paribas. "Hours worked weekly find their level in April (34.1) and hourly wages shrink by 0.1% over the month." In bad omen for consumer spending.

On the other hand, the unemployment rate, calculated on a different basis, for its part fell 9.7% in May to 9.5% in JuneThe Labor Department said the decline by reducing the workforce and the growing number of discouraged workers who no longer work. "We still expect a gradual recovery in the labor market with unemployment rates remain high in 2010 before improving slightly in 2011," says Julian Thomas, an economist at Natixis.

"In general, the Labor Department report suggests weak growth, but not fallen into recession, say economists for their part of Societe Generale.

The G20 is wary of excessive austerity

27th June

From our special correspondent in Toronto.

Whatever the fans of austerity, the G20 Toronto has not been that of rigor. On the form, the exorbitant cost of the summit – 1.2 billion Canadian dollars, or 900 million Euro-shows that developed countries like Canada, still have strong reservations to spend public money to do their self-promotion. On the merits, the U.S. calls for further spending in the short term have been heard, even if Barack Obama had a hard time leaving scope for "recovery" in the final communique.

"We need to let it work through our plans for fiscal stimulus to consolidate the recovery," said the G20."Adjustments in the largest simultaneous countries could undermine the recovery," said the statement, which also bears the imprint of major emerging countries (China, India, Brazil, Russia).

Budgetary discipline

Pessimistic about the recovery, deemed "fragile and uneven, very worried about the" rate of unemployment reached unacceptable levels in certain countries, "the G20 always gives priority to growth. "Although Mrs Merkel has agreed to make more growth!" Says Nicolas Sarkozy.

For the first time, however, the virtues of fiscal restraint is recognized at the highest level."Sound public finances are essential to sustain the recovery, giving some leeway in case of a new shock, and avoid leaving future generations a legacy of deficits and debt" indicates the G20.

A commitment risk

But beware of plans rigor rushed! The G20 did not advocate austerity at all stages payday loans for self employed. "Fiscal adjustment needs to be carefully calibrated to support private demand," it said. "The consolidation measures should be phased in over time, growth, and differentiated according to country."

Angela Merkel welcomes the significant progress: the G20 endorsed the objectives of deficits and debt, modeled on the European Stability Pact, sanctions and less.The G20 developed countries commit to reduce their deficit in half by 2013 and to stabilize their debt to GDP by 2016. He was a Canadian proposal, which the first Prime Minister Stephen Harper to declare victory, after a summit a small scale.

But this commitment amounted G20 does not fear large world. The European Union should achieve this goal without problems, ensures José Manuel Barroso. France has already pledged to reduce its deficit 8% today to 3% in 2013. As the United States, they feel just referred.In its letter to its partners in the G20 to warn them against the rigors, Barack Obama has renewed its commitment to reducing the U.S. budget deficit by half in 2013 to return to deficits of 3% in 2015.

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Banks: Operation truth about the accounts

18th June

European Banks Are they healthy? The question that torments the markets will soon find an answer. Indeed, European leaders have agreed to the request of France and gave the green light to publish the detailed results of stress tests (stress test "in English) which are subject garndes their banks. The 27 hoping to reassure markets worried discover surprises.

These reviews are intended to reflect the ability of banks to withstand extreme financial and economic conditions. Currently, those made at European level on a score of major banks remain confidential.Last year, only general trends were made public, including the fact that European banks were sufficiently capitalized to face a severe deterioration of macroeconomic conditions.

First published in late July

Nicolas Sarkozy has confirmed at his press conference that the publication of these tests would take place in late July as desired by Paris. Earlier in the day, Christine Lagarde, French Minister of Economy, had told Reuters: "I am very positive about this publication. There is nothing worse than the rumors and doubts about the banks. " The Minister is confident, remembering that French banks have so far yielded positive results. These displays of the solvency ratios for the time, satisfactory. In the opposite case, Christine Lagarde said the banks to recapitalize.

Madrid triggers debate

The day before, the Spanish central bank had announced the forthcoming publication of the results of these tests. The newspaper El Pais had found the ad "unprecedented in the euro area. The Madrid Institute hopes to dispel the doubts now hanging on the strength of its banking sector. The Spanish governor of the Bank believes that the current rumors greatly amplify the difficulties of the Spanish financial industry. He hopes that the markets "are fully aware of the situation in the Spanish banking system."

Banks reluctant

Further to the announcement in Madrid, the German government long reluctant, finally decided to give the green light too. But Berlin has yet to convince its banks. German institutions showed far opposed the publication of these results.

Successful tests of Moody's

The European Central Bank will also favors the publication of these tests. In the eyes of the central bank, the operation of transparency is able to reassure the markets. And regulators have reason to be optimistic. Indeed, European banks have recently passed the tests of strength by Moody's. The rating agency has increased the stress tests to thirty European banks from ten countries, and concluded that they have a level of capital sufficient to take further losses.

Danone Medical Nutrition acquires

12th June

The group Danone announced Friday the signing of an agreement for the acquisition of Medical Nutrition (NMI), an American company specializing in nutritional supplements for people under medical supervision.

The agreement provides that Danone will pay in cash approximately $ 62 million (51 million) to shareholders of MNI to acquire 100% of the group, Danone said in a statement.

The board of directors of American society has unanimously approved the merger, the CEO Frank A. Newman called "a tremendous opportunity for consumers, employees and shareholders of MNI.

Complementary products

The statement said the "strong complementarities" the two companies "in terms of product lines and distribution channels."Those would cater for the NMI especially the elderly, while those of Nutricia subsidiary of Danone, are primarily intended for infants.

NMI has recorded a turnover of 16 million dollars for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2010, multiplied by ten in seven years. Its activities will be integrated into medical nutrition division of Danone, which last year generated in North America 70 million dollars. Danone considers medical nutrition as "the most attractive category of food."

The tax loopholes rabottées 10%

4th June

The tax shelters will soon be planed 10%, Francois Fillon warned on Thursday morning in the East Republican. After announcing in early May that he wanted to make five billion euros in savings over five years on tax shelters, the prime minister said his program. The government opted Does the deletion of niches, or a general decline in their level? "Both," explained Francois Fillon.

"In each case, some niches will be deleted. And there will be a movement of the plane by 10%. With exceptions because it should not increase the cost of labor, "he says. Over the years, it is indeed accumulated more than 400 tax loopholes, intended for particular social groups or economic sectors. In total, the Telemachus to win for the state accounts for almost 75 billion euros.

For in order to cope with a deficit which currently stands at 7.5% of GDP, the resources available to the government are now limited, said the Premier. A tax increase seems difficult in France, both the level of tax burden is already high. "Within the euro area, we are among those who have the highest rate. Again, our margins are limited, "said the Premier. More limited, for example, those of our German neighbors.

No removal of tax charges

Same for the amount of charges. "In some sectors, the competitiveness gap with Germany reached up to 20%. We can not win over the German economy, "said Francois Fillon. No question, therefore, to remove some relief.Neither, as announced Wednesday Georges Tron, the Secretary of State for Public Service, to lower or freeze the salaries of civil servants, which may depend on the success of pension reform.

Only possible levers mentioned by the Prime Minister in the East Republican, in addition to the tax loopholes, reducing social spending and a freeze on the allocation of local communities. "But we will not touch the RSA," said Francois Fillon.

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The CAC 40 ended above 4050 points

9th April

After closing in the red Thursday, almost all the CAC 40 woke up green this Friday at 4022.66 points, excited by the great increase of Wall Street. And closed, its momentum, to 4050.54 points, up 1.81%, exceeding its peak.

The London Stock Exchange and Frankfurt have also recovered well in the wake of Wall Street, buoyed by an upturn in consumer spending … The London FTSE 100 closed up 1.02% to 5770.98 points. The German Dax closed up 1.26% to 6249.70 points.

Thursday evening, the CAC 40 lost 1.20%. After rising almost continuously since February. The index had been weakened by fears of renewed solvency of Greece.

The lifeline of the ECB

Fears eased by the reassuring words of Jean-Claude Trichet, called "lifeline" by the Greek press.The President of the European Central Bank, rejected any risk of contagion to other countries, like Italy. He also assured that a default of Greece was "beyond question". In fact, the President of the European Union, Herman Van Rompuy, promised Friday that the Europeans are "ready to intervene if the Greeks call" and implement a plan of assistance involving the IMF, which Greece seems to want to avoid. French President Nicolas Sarkozy confirmed: the European Union is ready to activate its plan "at any time.

These incentives have led to a rebound of the euro against the dollar above $ 1.34 this morning, then at 1.3385 dollars this afternoon. Volatility remains a must. After being stretched to 7.5%, the yield on loans to 10 year-old Greek, too, calmed a time, returning this morning to 7.2%.It said Thursday that Athens be able to reduce its deficit by 40% YoY in the first quarter.

The Greek situation remains fragile. The rating agency Fitch has lowered a few minutes from the end of Paris, noted the long-term debt of Greece, from BBB + to BBB-. This could well lead Greece to seek EU aid promised on March 25 …

According to strategists at BNP Paribas, investors await the issuance of treasury bills by Greece on Tuesday to assess the ability of countries to find core funding. Markets await the second season launch of results from U.S. companies, with Alcoa on Monday.

Side values, in Paris, the banks have been resilient, despite their exposure to Greece, to the tune of fifty billion euros.This does not raise "no particular concern, said Friday the governor of the Bank of France Christian Noyer, even if the French regulators monitor" closely "the situation.

The rising price of rubber has instead penalized cars, Michelin (-0.08%) signing the only declines the CAC 40.

Major contracts saved France Export

5th February

The failure of the sale of the French EPR in Abu Dhabi should not be the tree hiding the forest: large civil contracts, ranging from aircraft sales to the supply of subways or turbines, are points Highlights from the French industry. By themselves, they represent nearly 10% of exports hexagonal. And on those 10%, aeronautics and space account for nearly half. The France can say thank you to Airbus!

In 2009, this particular sector of the export has not escaped the crisis. While major contracts to emerging markets had risen to 30 billion euros in 2008, they fell to 21 billion last year. But the situation was rectified by end of year: fourth quarter 2009, sales have recovered to their levels of early 2008. "Since last October, we see a rebound very clear orders.They are China, and to a lesser extent India and Brazil, which are driving the demand "said Frederic Sanchez, CEO of Fives, a group specializing in providing equipment isolated and turnkey plants for heavy industry, and also president of the International Committee of the MEDEF.

The entrepreneur remains cautious for 2010. "It is too early to say whether the recovery is sustainable. The industrial engineering, from developed countries but also emerging economies, we are very strong competition. Margins are under pressure, "says he. If the backlog of Airbus can see coming in the aircraft sales in 2010, there are no certainties about civil contracts. In all cases in 2009, Africa was the first major outlet for French contracts, including through gas projects in North Africa. Asia came in second.But the Middle East was disappointing, the volume of cases being dropped to the level of 2002.

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