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The pendulum swings between her fingers. "As soon as the balance is broken, it means that there is radiation." So potentially the water flowing underground. Small round glasses and goatee-like of the eccentric Professor Calculus of Hergé, Hervé Laurent is no less serious. His profession: divining, or "geobiologist." A broader term to refer to a specialist in environmental influence on living organisms. In 2007, after receiving specific training in Vannes and have trained for three years, the former surveyor of 49 years decides to create his own company, Art of the place, to practice his passion. Since then, he walks every week in its adoption of Normandy, but also in Seine-Maritime, near Paris or in Normandy, in search of blue gold.

To do this, Hervé Laurent uses the methods of dowsing.This technique, which is controversial in the scientific sphere, based on the faculty of feeling "all that shines, like electromagnetic waves", including water. Once on the ground, sticks and other clocks are involved, "they function as amplifiers of radiation," said he. But according to him, "a trained diviner may very well do without it, once it knows how to put his body in condition to capture any breach of magnetic fields." Although it states "take them out to professional confidence to the customer …" In addition, Hervé Laurent also uses the "scintillation counter, an electronic device can also detect water" and that confirms a first trial.

"A failure rate of 10%"

Like the rods, the pendulum is used to find water. Photo: PM

For Majencia, a French company whose clients are exclusively French, to produce 20,000 km was "questionable logic," in the words of its current CEO, Vincent Gruau. With the adventure of trying relocation in 2004, in 2006, when the company encountered serious financial difficulties, the newly appointed CEO has decided to repatriate all of the manufacturer's production office.

"When I joined the company, I found that our plants were in a situation of overcapacity. The workers were laid off at 20%. Rather than close the plant, whose vacancy was expensive, we decided to give work to our employees, "said Vincent Gruau.

Social progress

The company at that time in full recovery, putting on sustainable development.From this point of view, the relocation of production is clearly relevant: it is a CO2 saving, and social progress for the company employees who see their jobs secure. It remained to assess the economic impact of such change.

Given the nature of the products Majencia including metal storage boxes – the raw material and transportation were already 80% of their cost. "Our products are heavy and bulky, their price per kg is low. These are typically products that support a hard rising costs of transportation, "said Vincent Gruau.

When energy prices begin to rise, the cost differential production with France rises to 10%. To fill the latter gap is that the direction of the working groups with the workers at its plant in Noyon, in Oise online payday loans.Objective: To identify the stages of manufacture, areas for improvement in productivity, which will relocate in September 2006 in constant costs.

More flexibility

If the primary objective of management was at full capacity to hold one of its French factories, the relocation has had other benefits, this time trading. Besides selling point is that the anchor 100% French, Majencia gained flexibility. No more delays transport 6 to 8 weeks which require to store the items. The manufacturer of office can now provide on demand.

"Our customers are increasingly attentive to the quality of work spaces. They expect from us a custom production that we could not provide China, because we did not master the entire process of production, "says the CEO.While only boxes light gray and dark gray out of their Chinese factories, Majencia now produces small batches to order. "If a customer asks us boxes purple polka dot young, we can provide!".

Since the relocation, 31 positions were created after the finances of the company recovered, from 2009. While production of 30,000 boxes were repatriated in 2006, the additional volume has now more than doubled. With a net increase of 174% in 2010, the company is now profitable, is considering moving to 90,000 in the coming years.

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After his sister Moody's, the rating agency Standard & Poor's sanctions Greece. It announced on Wednesday the downgrade of the country to "CC" with a negative outlook. Athens is found in two notches of default. The aid plan presented last Thursday by the European leaders will put Greece in a de facto situation of "selective default", argues the agency.

The plan, which provides a 20% loss to investors holding voluntary debt Greek, "is not investor friendly," said Standard & Poor's (S & P). "Although no date was given for the launch of this plan, we understand that it will not take place until September at the earliest. When it announced a deterioration in the notes to the rank of "selective default" (SD) should occur, "warns S & P.

In addition, Standard & Poor's believes that if the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) acquires large-scale debt securities on the market at prices planed, the country will also be in default selective. Note of Greece will be raised when the buybacks and debt restructuring will be completed.

But S & P remains cautious. After this first failure, the risk that the country face new fault "remains high". The head of the country rating agency launched statements in that Tuesday morning. "We plan to grant Greece a low rating in the speculative grade", that is to say high risk, he warns. The debt would still represent more than 130% of GDP at the end of 2011 and growth prospects, S & P notes, remain uncertain.

The President of the European Central Bank took the defense of Greece, shortly before the announcement of S & P. Speculate on a failure of Greece, he said, "would be the surest way to lose money after the decision last Thursday," giving new aid to the country.

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"If a new outbreak of disease occurs tomorrow in Kenya and Mexico, what should be the response of a health minister? Doing nothing is obviously wrong, decide the day after the onset of the disease in this country to immunize all the French media is not a point of view of our public finances. " Any resemblance to a situation that existed would not be purely coincidental …

Less than two years after the vaccination campaign against influenza A (H1N1) from Asia, which cost 700 million euros to the state (France had ordered 94 million doses before returning to 45 million for … that finally only 5.3 million French people to get vaccinated) is the illustration chosen Monday by the Director General of the Center for Strategic Analysis (CAS), Vincent Chriqui, at the outset of a study on the "calculation of risk in public investments. "Purpose of this report, led by Christian Gollier, head of the Toulouse School of Economics: to show that it is possible to take into account the risk and uncertainty before launching expensive projects.

"A position of equilibrium"

For this, the document recommends "a balancing of possible or probable gains with losses likely, or unlikely but possible" (sic)! Concrete expression to this current example chosen by Vincent Chriqui: "The catastrophe of Fukushima reminds us how the apprehension of risk and its assessment is an essential component of a public investment program."

Take into account not only the approach of the engineer, doctor, biologist or climatologist, but also that of the economist.The report stresses the importance of considering cost-benefit, cost utility and cost-effectiveness and integration of risk in the economic calculation. CAS advocates actually define rules that would result in "a position of balance" between spending and risk reduction. It offers among others a "mainstream" risks in the economic evaluation of investment projects in fields as diverse as new drugs, transport infrastructure and energy production or the urbanization of areas exposed to natural hazards …

It is "necessary" to take into account the benefit that a project can bring to the community risks associated with climate change, changes in oil prices, economic growth, the report says.It should, for example, remember that oil prices could rise in coming decades, when evaluating the benefit of a railway line.

The report also introduce a "risk premium" in the calculations when the fundamentals of a project are strongly correlated to economic activity. This would in some downgrade in the order of priorities "to guide public policies for projects that reduce the risks borne by households."

The Center for Strategic neglects, however, in size: large investments must be decided according to their degree of economic rationality, certainly, but also political choices or ethical. They can even be taken under the fear of lawsuits.This is precisely what has weighed against influenza A: After the tragedies of contaminated blood or the heat, the top priority policy was that the French can not blame them for not being vaccinated when they wished.

Barack Obama sought Monday to change the tone of the negotiations on reducing the budget deficit. "I am ready to face criticism from Democrats for an agreement that allows to raise the debt ceiling," said Monday the president of the United States, before resuming discussions with congressional leaders have fallen into the impasse. "We will reach agreement before August 2," promised the president at a press conference.

Placing himself as an arbiter between the two factions partisan, Barack Obama said: "The Republicans are going to have to compromise, as the Democrats." He hoped that the negotiations continue "all day", "until a solution is found."

Their challenge is twofold. The first is to adopt a compromise that reduces the medium to long-term U.S. budget deficits.But the compromise also depends on the adoption by August 2 of a law that raises the ceiling for the debt of the United States. Otherwise, the U.S. Treasury would no longer issue the bonds needed to honor the debts of Uncle Sam was general such a defect of the United States would have catastrophic consequences for the entire global economy.

Avoiding tax increases

During the weekend negotiations have stalled or even declined. Democrats accuse Republicans of blocking any agreement by refusing the principle of tax increases. For their part, Republicans reject the approach proposed by Barack Obama on an ambitious four trillion dollars in savings over ten years.They are rather a compromise of around 2 trillion, thinking to keep their campaign promise to block any tax increase.

To complicate matters, the elected Democrats have their doubts about the path traced by the White House. Barack Obama asks them, in fact, painful concessions in the form of savings in programs popular pension and health care. Yet the Democrats do not want to pay the price in the November 2012 legislative concessions that make a great historical compromise personal serving the cause of Barack Obama but not his party.In addition, the recent rise in unemployment leads them to reconsider their promise to reduce government spending made a few weeks ago as part of negotiations led by the then vice president, Joe Biden.

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The government is very worried by the drought that has spread to 61 French departments and is willing to provide aid to farmers. Nicolas Sarkozy, who is in the Charente on Thursday presented a plan to help farmers affected by drought which includes a "shift one year" repayment of loans granted to farmers in 2009, and waived the Tax on undeveloped land.

"It is essentially a cash flow problem is (…), you repay your debts, or you pay for your food animals," said Nicolas Sarkozy after visiting the operation of a cattle farmer Montemboeuf . "We will find you some leeway and we will shift all the payments of a year," he added. "Essentially this is a map of deferments," stressed the head of state.He stressed that the "encryption" of this measure, the state will take over the payment of interest owed by farmers, could not be established "now" does not exclude other measures if necessary .

A budget of 500 million

At a roundtable in La Rochefoucauld, the Head of State later clarified that this related only to the reimbursement of aid paid under the plan launched in 2009 Poligny (Jura). "I just do not tell the difference repayment of all loans in French agriculture, it must be serious," he said. During the roundtable, the president also said that "farmers in the affected areas would benefit from an exemption from tax on undeveloped land (…) which represents 300 million euros."

In the process, he said that the state would pay the national guarantee fund against agricultural disasters, mobilized by the Minister of Agriculture, Bruno Le Maire, a budget of around EUR 200 million to enable the payment Advance compensation "from the month of September." "On 12 July there will be a first test session files (…) the first payments will be held in September," he said.

Facilities of National Defence made provisions

Finally, Nicolas Sarkozy has announced, next week, a meeting of professional agricultural organizations with the Ministers of Agriculture, Ecology and Defense, as well as the CEO of SNCF to adjust logistical problems posed by the movement of fodder from farmers in difficulty."The problem is less a production problem at those you book (fodder) that a massive logistical problem," he said, adding that "national defense facilities" will be made available to allow storage straw and fodder.

In his speech, the head of state has ruled out any direct assistance to farmers in difficulty. "Do not fall back into bad habits to give you benefits that would be declared illegal (by Brussels, ed) in a few months," he said.

In addition to these economic measures, Nicolas Sarkozy also announced the establishment of a five-year plan to create water reservoirs and reduced volumes of water used by agriculture."We must learn to make better use of water," he résumé.Les farmers cautious

The President of Young Farmers Jean-Michel Schaeffer has cautiously welcomed as a "first step" measures that have just been announced by the head of state, hoping they will soon materialize. "These are statements of good intentions. Now we must see action, wait and see what's behind. We know that the devil is in the detail. Awaiting implementation, "said the farmer, who is the head of a union representing 50,000 members. His remarks mainly concern 200 million euros to allow advance payments of compensation. "The damage, we will evaluate them between July and August. Will this be enough compensation? It is far too early to tell, but it is a first step, "he said.

François Fillon evaluated Thursday before the senators, "nearly one billion euros" as the sum of national solidarity will have to spend to support farmers.

(With AFP)

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Cofounder of the investment fund Blackstone Group, Stephen Schwarzman moved to Paris for a few months to celebrate his fifteen years of marriage with his second wife. The center of gravity of the New York firm has migrated into the small offices of Parisian society. Three assistants that entrepreneur finance successive periods of ten days in Paris. A videoconferencing room has been installed. It allows this tireless worker to attend all committees of Blackstone investment regardless of the schedule. More often abroad than in Paris, he has used in recent weeks to meet more than half the patrons of the CAC 40. For him, the situation is generally very good.

LE FIGARO. – What place in the Blackstone private equity?

Stephen Schwarzman.- We are now the biggest investor in the world with $ 150 billion of assets in private equity, real estate, hedge funds, junk bonds, credit … The 67 companies are now owned by Blackstone 129 billion dollars in sales and nearly one million employees. In size, we are the seventh largest U.S. company. Our approach is truly global, which allows me to be pretty confident.

So you're satisfied with the current situation?

Whether in Asia, emerging markets, North America and South America, three quarters of the countries where we show good growth. Only Europe is growing more slowly, is withdrawn, even if there are major differences between Germany, very dynamic, and the countries of Southeast Europe, which are much less.It is a very good time to invest, especially in countries or sectors where we are still in early recovery. Especially as interest rates remain very low.

In what areas do you invest?

In real estate, we are very active in the United States. There are also a lot of opportunities in energy, in natural resources, security of supply, optimization payday lenders.

It accuses the fund to achieve good performances with the lever of bank debt. What is it?

Twenty-five years, we post an average return on investment of 13% over the evolution of the equity indices over the same period. It's a lot, and this performance is due mainly to the originality of our business and our know-how. When we buy a company, we are implementing a strategy for accelerated development.We ensure that management implements this strategy. Alternatively, and unlike listed companies, we do not hesitate to change the management if necessary. Another feature: our managers are not under the pressure of quarterly results. We can have a more long term. Blackstone also has many experts in marketing, finance, information technology … we send to companies to improve performance if necessary. The use of leverage comes after these few key success factors.

The financial crisis did she not question this model?

Contrary to what some have predicted, there was no more bankruptcies among businesses owned by funds from other companies. This has surprised everyone, except the private equity specialists.During this period, Blackstone has recorded no failures in its portfolio.

What is your rate of investment in 2011?

We will probably invest 11 to 12,000,000,000 dollars in private equity, real estate and credit. This amount is considerable. With debt, that's about $ 50 billion investment.

How do you see Blackstone in ten years?

In ten years, I do not know. But for the next five years I hope to be able to double or even triple our size. It is a beautiful period for Blackstone.

Two days after the catastrophe, the destruction of the earthquake and resulting tsunami that struck Japan on Friday are still difficult to assess. Thing is certain: the earthquake will have "a significant impact on economic activity in many sectors," warned Sunday the spokesman of the Japanese government, Yukio Edano. Consequences that should be in the tens of billions of dollars. According to the specialist risk management AIR Worldwide, the cost of single earthquake (excluding damage caused by the tsunami) is expected to reach $ 34.6 billion.

In the short term, the destruction caused are indeed enormous: infrastructure damaged production facilities at the stop, the areas impacted are placing great weight in the economy.If the worst-affected region, that of Tohoku, north-east coast, only 8% of Japanese GDP, that of Kanto, which houses including Tokyo, by contrast produces 40% of national wealth.

GDP contraction in first quarter

Besides stopping the oil refinery of Cosmo Oil Ichihara, east of Tokyo, the activity of the Japanese nuclear industry, which produces between 25% and 30% of national electricity production, is seriously compromised. Eleven of the fifty reactors are currently stalled, while an explosion in one of two plants in Fukushima, northern-eastern countries, has caused extensive damage and the evacuation of all population within a radius of 20 km. In total, electricity generation is expected to fall by 25%, warned the Minister of Commerce.

Result of these temporary closures of production facilities, "the GDP could decline again slightly in the first quarter," predicted the AFP and Wolfgang Leim, economist at Commerzbank. To calm markets Monday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced it would undertake a "massive injection of funds," the order of 220 to 340 billion euros. The BoJ has also provided the equivalent of 490 yen to 13 million euros banking institutions in the northeastern Japan to help them cope with many requests for withdrawals that followed the earthquake unsecured personal loans.

Growth boosted by reconstruction

In the medium term, however, the Japanese economy could rebound strongly.Drawing a parallel with the Kobe earthquake in 1995, Takuji Okubo, senior economist at Societe Generale, said that reconstruction should generate an increase in activity, and the need for people to renew their property damaged boost consumption. The sectors of construction, steel and telecommunications sectors should benefit fully from the increased activity post earthquake.

"After the earthquake of 1995, Japan's GDP grew 1.9% in 1995 and 2.6% in 1996, while the average growth of the Japanese economy over this period was 1.5% . Consumption grew 2.2% between 1995 and 1996 against 1.1% on average between 1995 and 2004, "said Takuji Okubo.

Risk on debt

The Japanese bank Nomura, which also anticipates strong growth in the Japanese economy in the medium term, says his side as the stimulus state has played a key role in 1995 to revive the economy."Immediately after the earthquake, the government passed an emergency budget which has contributed 0.3 points to GDP growth in the second quarter 1995 and 0.5 points in the third quarter. We anticipate a similar response from the authorities, "notes Peter Westaway, economist at Nomura.

The opposition conservative Japanese has already announced its support for extraordinary measures promised by the center-left government. A situation which should not, however, help improve the financial health of Japan, whose debt stood at 200% of GDP. The rating agency Standard and Poor's has also recently lowered the debt rating of Japan, considering that the country's budget deficit will remain high in coming years. Moody's did its part Friday that the earthquake should not cause a subsequent breakdown of the score attributed to the Japanese debt.

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The French economy has actually created jobs in 2010. It is a certainty. Both employment center that ACOSS, the bank URSSAF, who publish their data this morning of job creation in the 4th quarter of 2010, asserts. Only differ in fact increase the levels of 120 000 employment center (ie + 0.7%), according to ACOSS 164 000 (+0.9%) and 165 000 for INSEE (+0.9%). In all three cases, the creations of 2010 erase third destruction recorded the previous two years.

Another point of agreement: temporary employment fired last year. According to the employment center, it would explain itself 118 000 120 000 jobs created. The proportion is slightly lower for ACOSS which attributes to the Acting 101,000 jobs created which have mostly benefited youth.According to calculations (unpublished) of employment center, 30% of new net in the interim have benefited less than 25 years as they represent only 8% of total employment. "There is still room for improvement, however, notes Alain Gubian, the" Mr. Statistics "ACOSS. The interim, which increased 19% in one year is still below 20% to its highest level reached in March 2008. "

New record low in the industry

The industry continues, meanwhile, started his descent into hell in the early 2000s, more or less by eliminating 60 000 jobs and hitting a new record low of just over 3 million. Positive: the losses were substantially reduced last year, finding a rhythm before the crisis."The slowdown in the decline of industrial employment is spectacular," says Alain Gubian who notes that the trend in year-end is much better than that recorded in 2003-2006 and 2007. "The tension indicator to a halt since last October and has stabilized at 25%, meanwhile welcomes Bernard Ernst, the" Mr. Statistics' employment center. Another little satisfaction factor: the annual change in industrial employment – temporary jobs in reintegrating by major sector – grew by 0.6%. A first!

As for the construction, she ended the year on a decline of 2,000 jobs. "We are very far from the losses recorded in 2009," says Bernard Ernst. "It goes back at year end but the momentum is much smaller than before," says Alain Gubian.Rest service employment, up sharply in both cases (180 000 + 227 employment center and 000 according to ACOSS). Or a rebound for the 4th consecutive quarter of decline after eight who did more than offset the losses in 2008 and 2009.

Logout

Neither organization has however been able to provide explanations for the disconnection occurred in 2010 between the sharp rise in the number of jobseekers registered in category A (76 600 unemployed) and the significant increase in creations employment of a part (000 for 120 employment center, + 164 000 ACOSS) and the consequent decline in the number of unemployed by the ILO over the same period the other (93,000).

For the first problem, employment center anticipates an increase in the labor force than expected and promised a nice surprise early April when the updating of this indicator by INSEE.As to the second, employment center has no explanation. Just note that there is essentially disconnected due to the more than 50 years the number of unemployed rose by 69,000 for the employment center, but drops 6000 according to the ILO. "It is a fact that does not explain," says Bernard Ernst, embarrassed. The difference is also significant for the 25-49 age group since the number of unemployed in this age group grew by 24,000 but declining employment center of 30 000 for the ILO. Studies are underway to explain these problems …

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Frédéric Lefebvre, Secretary of State for SMEs, has launched yesterday a regional basis for the simplification preparing a national conference to be held mid-April in Paris. He had already met the end of January hundred correspondents SMEs appointed by the administration. The latter, one per department, are responsible for interviewing 500-1000 entrepreneurs back to their grievances. Questionnaires were also sent to employers of OFWs and SMEs to better understand their needs. The major national conference will summarize these grievances then to propose corrective measures.

Frédéric Lefebvre was yesterday at Compiegne (Oise) for the first regional meeting bringing together business leaders and state officials. He visited the company Techni Metal (15 million euros in turnover, 120 employees) whose boss has presented a very concrete way its administrative difficulties."I hope that the texts were written taking into account their impact on SMEs, that laws and other regulations are published at fixed dates, once per quarter, for example," said Bernard Lamb, CEO of the company . "I also support the establishment of a single portal for all tenders as is done in Germany. Finally, avoid the transposition of European directives only serves French companies against their European competitors. "Frederic Lefebvre then met sixty patrons and leaders of professional organizations in the sub-prefecture of Compiegne. He listened to their grievances at length on taxation, the creation and life of the company.Other similar meetings will be held in 21 regions.

'Act quickly'

The UMP of the Ardennes, Jean-Luc Warsmann, president of the Law Committee of the National Assembly and co-chair of national conference alongside Jean-Michel Aulas, president of Cegid and Olympique Lyonnais, was present. The MP, who is on a mission on this subject by the President, will present its report in late March. Legislation should be introduced this summer. "I wish the government, Parliament and business work hand in hand. We want to move quickly, "said Frederic Lefebvre.

The foundation for simplification are welcomed by professional organizations that condemn the proliferation of texts in all areas, whether social, environmental, procurement or safety. CGPME has already submitted 60 proposals.The chamber also recommends action. For example in the field of taxation or for exports to the DOM.

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