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Lefigaro.fr – The CAC 40 has lost nearly a quarter of its value in two months. How far the fall can she lead?

Fabrice Cousté – If one believes technical analysis you can go touch the low of March 2009 or even lower. The crisis we are experiencing is in fact more serious than that of three years ago because this time it is not the bankruptcy of one or more banks, but the bankruptcy of one or more States, so the problems of a different magnitude, in terms of their economic and especially political resolution.

How do you explain this precipitous drop?

As in 2008, financial markets were dislocated during the summer. There is now only a few buyers and many market players are taking advantage of any rebound to settle more positions. Also new microeconomics is no longer supported.Investors are looking more because the health of companies but only macroeconomic statistics or information. Since the summer, the flow of news, always negative, points out that the problems are structural and feeds a climate of anxiety in markets that are on the precipice. Political leaders do not seem to be aware of.

Therefore what strategy should investors adopt by the end of the year?

Some titles "refuge" as Essilor, Sanofi, L'Oreal and Air Liquide are kept in the portfolio. But volatility remains high and the risk of further correction as well.That's why I advise investors to discover the techniques to learn to hedge their portfolios with options or CFD (contract between two investors who agree to exchange the difference between the opening and Closing of support) to cushion the shock if further decline. In the panic, investors often sell too late.

The adoption of the second conditional aid package to Greece by the German Sages is not likely to reassure investors?

It is a relief. Yet it is a "Yes … but." Long as there is a "but" in the ads on the debt crisis, financial markets will continue to brood as these conditions overlap with the responsiveness needed to face an emergency no fax payday advance.They sanction the policy of "baby steps" of states and the total lack of solidarity within the euro area. Financial markets require only the words of intent but long-term certainty. What the politicians are unable to provide them because of their short maturities.

Are you worried about the euro area?

Yes I am. Of course, unlike the Anglo-Saxons, we do not feel in the euro area of ​​hatred against the European currency. Now if political leaders do not take the measure of the crisis in which we find ourselves, an explosion in the euro area is inevitable.Therefore, two scenarios are possible: either an exit of the weakest states in the euro zone as Greece and contagion Portugal, Spain see Italy or output states that do not want to pay for others such as Germany, the Netherlands and Austria.

So with these massive sales of shares, you expect a flight to government bonds when the debt crisis brewing in Europe and the United States?

This seems paradoxical, but yes. Institutional investors always prefer to put their money on assets "refuge" and especially liquids. As proof, the 10-year bonds of the United States have not suffered from the deterioration of "AAA" of the country. The run on U.S. government bonds has even caused a decline in their performance at historic levels.Same point in Germany and France or the bonds have not suffered from the debt crisis. This means that as long as fear prevails, German bonds, French and American continue to be purchased. Instead, the assets considered risky such as stocks are penalized. This situation can be reversed quickly if positive catalyst. Until that clicks, investors should follow the strategy of China continues to diversify its investments between the United States, Europe and Africa.

Safran, currently listed on the SBF 120, will make its debut on the CAC 40 on 19 September. The industrial and technology group, owned 30% by the state and 16% by its employees, replaces the bank Natixis in the most important indicator of the Paris Bourse. The announcement of the decision of the scientific evidence that fell Friday night to enter into force on September 16 at closing. The CAC 40 has not seen changes since September 2010, when Dexia (bank) and Lagardère (media) had been replaced by Natixis and Publicis (advertising).

The case for an entry Safran are numerous. The group was first sold 6.5 million treasury shares on the market late in July to increase its free float to more than 50%. Or the size of free float is one of the most important criteria observed by the Board for an introduction to the Cac 40.Capitalization criteria equally crucial $ 11.6 billion. Finally, the performance of the title are not negligible. The stock has gained more than 14% since August 26, while the SBF 120 index has returned just 5.6%. Since the beginning of the year, it grew by 5.4% when the SBF 120 index lost more than 12%. "There is a large consensus on this value. Safran is a great candidate, "pointed out shortly before the decision Emmanuel Besson, manager at Equity Management Ofi AM.

Suez Environnement does not leave the Cac 40

Suez Environnement was on the spot. The company, owned 35.8% by GDF-Suez and 7.2% by Groupe Bruxelles Lambert, certainly has a free float above 50% but its market capitalization of 5.88 billion, is among the lowest in the four Cac 40, with STMicroelectronics, Accor and Peugeot.In addition, the title was severely punished by investors: it shows a loss of 17.6% since the beginning of July, in line with the losses of the CAC (18% over the period).

But it Natixis, which has been designated to leave the Cac 40. It must be said that banking stocks have suffered heavily in recent weeks. The title is back in the index only a year ago and this decision "could create additional pressure on the banking at a time when we seek to appease," said Emmanuel Besson.

Before the verdict, Safran fell by 2.77% to 27.05 euros at the close, in a market down 3.59%. In turn, Natixis lost 4.57% to 2.71 euros.

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Eurobonds are too expensive. It is seeking to demonstrate that the calculations of the German Ministry of Finance, taken by the weekly Der Spiegel on Sunday. This mechanism, which is to pool the debts of 17 countries in the euro area, regardless of their health, the first year would cost 2.5 billion euros of interest in addition to the budget of the German finance minister. This cost would be twice as high the second year to a total of 20 to 25 billion at the end of ten years.

On this basis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has once again firmly rejected the introduction of this system, although many market professionals believe that this is the solution to the crisis of European sovereign debt. "The Eurobonds are quite the wrong response to the crisis of the moment.They would lead us to a union of debt and not a union of stability, "she says in an interview with ZDF.

His comments echo those made by the Minister of Economy Philip Rösler the newspaper Bild am Sonntag: "The Euro-bonds are a bad signal sent to national economies failed. Cover the risks of other countries with Eurobonds would immediately drive up interest rates in Germany. This would have dramatic effects on growth in our country, "said he.

Strengthening governance

Despite all these outputs, the German government did not draw a line under this system payday loans in 1 hour. The finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has again said that the countries of the euro area could issue Eurobonds if échafaudent prior fiscal policy and fiscal policy.But this move towards integration is not fast enough, he said. "Most Member States are not quite ready to accept the necessary limitations on national sovereignty. But believe me, it's a problem we can solve, "said the Minister in an interview with Welt am Sonntag.

Wishing to lead by example, Wolfgang Schäuble has said for his part personally prepared to transfer sovereignty to Brussels. "As a person, I would be ready. The idea of ​​a European finance minister I have no problem.But as finance minister I say that it is our duty to solve problems here and now, and that as soon as possible based on existing contracts. "

Wolfgang Schäuble will meet his French counterpart Francois Baroin Tuesday to discuss the harmonization of corporate tax and the introduction of a tax on financial transactions. France is the country with Germany most strongly opposed to the Eurobonds.

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After losing more than 8% over the last seven sessions, and have plunged dangerously, this morning, falling 1.8% to 3460 points, the Cac 40 limited its losses slightly in mid-session, down from 0.40% to 3508.71 points. The index featuring Paris is nevertheless on track to sign an eighth consecutive day of decline.

On other European financial centers, the Footsie-100 from the London Stock Exchange 0.97% to 5663.10 loose points, the DAX 30 Frankfurt Stock Exchange lost 0.83% to 6740 points. But stock markets in the South, the more destabilized the previous day to resume mid-term: 20 PSI of the Lisbon Stock Exchange will stop over as well, only 0.05%. Milan bounces more frankly about 1.15%, and Madrid, 1.59%.

Juncker meets with Italian Minister of Finance

The European sovereign debt and U.S. continue to weigh heavily on the trend.Yield spreads between bonds to ten years Spanish and Italian over German bonds widen. They stood at 402 basis points respectively (13 bps) and 386 basis points (12 bps). Italy and Spain are again under pressure from the markets fear a contagion of debt. Their governments are mobilizing to stem the panic even if Brussels has ruled out any discussion of a bailout for those countries. The Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti and the leader of the euro zone, Jean-Claude Juncker, today concluded their discussion by considering that the reflection on the debt crisis was to continue "calmly."For its part, the Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero on Wednesday convened a meeting on "market movements".

China increasingly perplexed vis-à-vis the dollar

Investors also remain worried about the strength of U.S. growth. And, although the Senate has ratified Tuesday the plan to raise the debt ceiling. Insufficient agreement by Moody's which could lower the rating of the country. The closing down sharply on Wall Street Tuesday night also confirms the markets in their choice to continue to withdraw.

China, for its part welcomed the adoption of very hard this plan. Beijing said it would continue to limit its dependence on the dollar, whereas the U.S. has failed to defuse "the bomb of debt." The rating agency Dagong China in the wake downgraded American.Wednesday morning, Asian stock markets, with the exception of Shanghai, changing all down sharply.

Eurozone: activity in services slows further

On the macroeconomic front, the growth of activity in the services sector continued to slow in July to register their slowest pace since March 2010. The PMI index reached 54.2 against 56.1 in June.

The same goes for the euro area and for Germany: the composite index stood at 52.5 against 56.3 respectively in June and 51.1 against 53.3 in June.

For the euro area, retail sales rebounded 0.9% in June compared to May, where they had fallen by 1.3%, said Wednesday the EU statistics office Eurostat.Eurostat revised down its initial estimate for the month of May, initially announced at 1.1%.

In the U.S., investors will also pay attention to employment figures in the private sector in July (2:15 p.m.), the industrial orders in June (16 hours), the ISM services in the month July (16 hours) and weekly inventory of crude oil (16.30).

Bic flies, Societe Generale sinks

Air France-KLM: + 0.38% to 7.86 euros

The airline plans to delays or cancellations of flights, from Paris, following a strike by technicians responsible for maintenance of its aircraft.

Total: -0.64% to 36.56 euros

The oil company and its CEO Christophe de Margerie were returned to correctional late July for "active corruption" in the investigation into the UN program "Oil against food" in Saddam Hussein's Iraq from 1996 to 2003 officials said a judicial source.

Danone: + 0.01% to 49.51 euros

The dairy group has unveiled a proposed acquisition of 250 million euros in nutrition in India to expand into the Indian markets for infant nutrition and medical purposes.

Societe Generale: -6.91% to 30.26 euros

The bank chaired by Frédéric Oudéa posted net income down 31% to 747 million because of writedowns on loans Greek past.Greece forced Societe Generale has given up its goal of net profit of 6 billion euros in 2012.

Crédit Agricole: -1.53% to 7.87 euros

The bank said it had sold its commercial finance Eurofactor in Britain to GE Capital.

Suez Environnement: + 1.87% to 12.82 euros

The group specializes in water management and waste released on Wednesday a net profit down 43% to 221 million euros in the first half. Suez Environnement, however, reaffirmed its financial targets for 2011-2013.

Bic: + 4.62% to 64.34 euros

Bic raised its growth target for the division of pens, lighters and disposable razors, to "greater than 5%" against up to 5%.Instead, the group anticipates a decline of about 10% growth for its advertising and promotional products division against 5% previously.

Hermes: -2.50% to 237.50 euros

The Association for the Defence of Minority Shareholders (Adam) wonders why the saddle spends as much to buy back its own shares, whose price has reached a new record this week, said Tuesday its president Colette Neuville.

Renault: -0.06% to 35.34 euros, Peugeot: + 0.66% to 24.43 euros

American manufacturers have announced their sales figures on Tuesday night. Chrysler reported a 20% increase in sales of new cars in the U.S. in July, while Ford saw its own increase by 9%.French car values ​​rebound sharply in mid-session.

Accor: -0.80% to 28.59 euros

Accor announced the signing of the sale of catering group Lenôtre Sodexo following the favorable opinion of the works councils of both groups.

After-hours trading, Vilmorin and Cegedim must publish their annual turnover for the first and second quarters respectively.

Nikos Aliagas will make his return to radio. It will be on Europe 1, to interview people in the new morning Bruce Toussaint. Just a month after announcing his departure from the "6 / 9 'NRJ, with a simple tweet, the host TV and radio back then the tape. Denis Olivennes, the head of the Lagardère group's television station, confirmed Tuesday morning on Twitter.

For its first grid back, the CEO of Europe 1 has muscled its morning. At the helm, Bruce Toussaint, a defector from Canal +. To maneuver for political and big personalities: Jean-Pierre Elkabbach retains his interview. For humor, Nicolas Canteloup has re-signed for a season and retains his column, which is a peak audience of the station with 1.4 to 1.6 million listeners.In a grid, which reaffirms the primacy of the information, Nikos Aliagas therefore takes the side of people who had been introduced by Marc-Olivier Fogiel in his morning.

Moderator contract of TF1, Nikos Aliagas presents "50 Minutes Inside", the magazine of a people. On the radio, he has succeeded in redressing the morning of NRJ in two seasons only.

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It's definitely good news. Growth of 2011 has started on a flying, rising 1% in the first quarter, after the tiny increase of 0.3% in the last quarter of 2010, according to figures released Friday by the INSEE. Not only is it much better than what was expected, but it is also the best quarterly performance registered by France since 2006. You almost forget that the institute of statistics at the same time, lowered the growth figures for the previous three years!

The Economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, who blew the whistle on the previous evening, was immediately welcomed this figure, which confirms "that the French economy is set on a path of robust recovery."Jean-Francois Cope, secretary general of the UMP, for his part spoke of "excellent performance".

It must be said that, as the saying goes at Bercy, all the lights earlier this year are "green" to watching a few nuances in detail. Household consumption was slightly accelerated, rising 0.6% against 0.4% over the last three months of 2010. And proof that the expenses do not only with cars and the latest gaming effects of scrapping the service consumption rebounded sharply. Business investment has, meanwhile, performed well.

Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphic.

The institute noted however that the balance of trade "contributes negatively again" on GDP growth (-0.4 point), but that "this is more than offset" by changes in business inventories, which contribute positively to 0.7 percentage points to growth.

Industrial production finally jumped 3.4% and `show its strongest growth over the last thirty years," Christine Lagarde welcomes. Which does not specify that this rebound in industrial production is largely due to the production of refined products, which dates back strongly for technical reasons related to the correction of consequences "of social movements at the end of last year" in refineries , said Insee payday loans.

"A little less strong"

The Minister of Economy nevertheless acknowledged "very possible" that the second quarter "a little less strong.""One swallow does not make statistical economic spring," said, in his way, the number two PS, Harlem Desir.

For even if the number of start of the year is a reflection of economic situation improves, the pace may not continue. Rising raw material, exchange rate of the euro, higher inflation that continues in the purchasing power effect of stock-cons, or international situation deteriorates … So many reasons fear a slowdown in coming months .

Bercy, however, confirmed on Friday its growth forecast for 2011 to 2%. The goal now seems achievable because over for the current year is already 1.6%.Traditionally more pessimistic, the European Commission was asked to meet on Friday too, its growth forecast for the Hexagon, 1.7% to 1.8% over the year.

2008, 2009, two years of recession

Each year in May, INSEE revised the growth of the three previous years. This time, it's a bunch down! Growth in 2010 has not reached as planned 1.5% but 1.4%. The recession of 2009 was 2.6% and not 2.5%.But it is in 2008 that the difference is most significant: adjusted downwards by 0.3 percentage points, the year does not end on a growth of 0.1% as announced, but a decline in GDP of 0, 2%, according to Insee

Moreover, the institute has recalculated the slight increase in deficit (state, social security, local) of France in 2010 to 7.1% of GDP at year end as against 7% announced earlier.

As for the debt, it was 82.3%, instead of 81.7% predicted previously to 1 591.2 billion.

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The markets took fright on Friday night after a new European cacophony. Greece had threatened to leave the euro in discussions with the European Commission, reports the website of German magazine Der Spiegel quoted a government source in Berlin. The major European capitals have refuted this information.

"These items are a challenge, undermine the effort of Greece and the euro and serve speculative games," said the Greek finance ministry said in a statement. "We did not discuss output of Greece in the euro area, we all think it would be a stupid option," added the president of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker. "The assumption of an outflow of Greece to the euro area is completely fanciful", also assured Bercy.

Despite denials by the French, German and Greek, the single currency accelerated its decline against the dollar.Friday night shortly before 22:30, the euro lost nearly 1.4% to 1.4338 dollar. Rumor sign a new stage, and this information is disturbing. It is not surprising that the euro will weaken, "said one analyst at a U.S. bank. At the same time, the cost of insurance against a collapse of the Greek debt ("Credit default swaps, or CDS) jumped from 74 basis points to a record 1,370 basis points, according to Markit.

Meeting in Luxembourg

An emergency meeting, was held between some finance ministers from the eurozone. Jean-Claude Juncker as a German government source quoted by AFP on Saturday, it was denied solely on Greece.

"These are meetings that take place at irregular intervals, and mainly" the members of the euro area as the G20, such as France, Germany and Italy, the source said German.It argues, the discussions covered a wide variety of topics, including the regulation of financial markets, with Portugal, but also the financial situation of Greece. The Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou also confirmed to have attended the meeting Friday.

According to the Greek press on Saturday, new support measures have been studied. The financial daily Naftemboriki referred to the lengthening of bonds maturing this year and in 2012, leaving Greece a breather. According to another newspaper, Kathimerini, the objectives of reducing the public deficit could also be pushed back two to four years, or interest rates in exchange for an extended break of two years, during which the country does not pay interest.

Contradictory statements are troubling indeed the euro area in recent weeks about a possible debt restructuring Greek. Lars Feld, one of economic advisers to Angela Merkel, considered by example on Sunday that the restructuring is "the only way forward so that Greece is a little relieved that creditors and help to solve the Greek problem." The ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet, for his part flatly denied Thursday that event.

The earthquake of magnitude 9 followed by a giant tsunami that devastated Japan on March 11 last weigh heavily on the Japanese economy. Japanese factory output has fallen by 15.3% compared to February, the highest since the introduction of this indicator in 1953.

The industrial base has been hit hard by the disaster. The automotive sector is one of the most affected by the earthquake. Several subcontractors parts are indeed more able to provide builders, who are forced to reduce their rates of assembly sites. The automotive industry has seen its output fall by nearly half in March, components and cars combined.

And this sector, hit by supply disruptions affecting production lines in Europe and the United States is not alone in suffering from the brunt of the disaster.Thus, "the damage in semiconductors and other electronic products were higher than expected initially," said Hideki Matsumura, economist at the Research Institute of Japan.

Besides the physical destruction of plants and buildings, estimated at 210 billion euros by the authorities, shortages of electricity related to the nuclear disaster and loss of infrastructure is a real obstacle to the resumption of production rates . Thus, firms located in Tokyo and the region should not return to their consumption of electricity prior to the disaster before this summer.

Consumption lowered

Meanwhile, the Japanese have drastically reduced their spending. The average household consumption has slumped and 8.5% in March compared to the same month of 2010, a record since the inception of this indicator in 1964.The road and rail transport were disrupted for weeks, hampering the industrial logistics, and popular of the Japanese convenience stores have experienced supply problems. Moreover, the Japanese have reduced their spending "non-essential" such as recreation, buying a car or clothes.

But the Japanese economy is expected to resume next month. Thus, according to a government survey, industrial production could restart as early as April, although at moderate pace. And if automakers would suffer from lack of supply until the fall, construction, heavy industry and telecommunications will benefit from significant orders.

A view shared by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which also put on a rebound of the economy to fall. The institution has also kept its key rate between 0% and 0.1%.The BoJ did not want to change its monetary policy on Thursday, wanting to know more precisely whether the impact of the earthquake of March 11 may jeopardize the return of the economy to a moderate recovery.

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Since its opening 19 years ago, Disneyland Paris had been a fire on the roof of Rock'n'Roller coaster, an attraction at Walt Disney Studio park dedicated to film adjoining the main site of Marne-La- valley. He had done no hurt. The accident Sunday afternoon on one of the most popular attractions of the park, Mine Train, is a first, and could have adverse consequences for the activity of Euro Disney. And more so that the prognosis would be engaged to one of five victims, according to a source familiar with the matter.

The accident comes at a bad time while turnover theme parks of Euro Disney (Disneyland Paris, Walt Disney Studios) declined in 2010 from 2.9 million to $ 685 3 million reflecting a decline in attendance from 3% to 15 million visits.A decline partially offset by a 2% increase in average spending per visitor to 45.30 euros 44.22 euros in 2009 cons.

At the Paris Bourse, investors are indifferent to the news. Euro Disney wins the title, in fact, 0.57% to 8.78 euros after the first half hour of trading, while the CAC 40 lost 0.24%.

The list of seven is finally ready. On Friday, the G20 meeting in Washington, have managed to agree on the seven countries whose impact on global economic imbalances are greatest. They are members of the old G5 70s: the United States, France, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom, enmeshed in two powerful emerging economies, China and India .

These countries, which each weigh more than 4% of the global economy, "are clearly more systemic," according to the French Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde, who chaired the meeting. They will therefore be a "thorough assessment" of their finances to reduce the imbalances they create in the world.More concretely, the G20 will analyze the changes since 1990 and projections until 2015, several variables including their public finances, external accounts, savings and private sector debt.

Towards a global growth "balanced"

The objective of this approach is to deliver recommendations to follow for these countries. For the U.S., it will thus reduce the triple deficit, commercial and household savings guaranteed payday loan. For China, it will move from growth to export-led growth fueled by domestic demand. Countries richly endowed with natural resources should also provide impetus to consumption.

On the part of capital flows in the international monetary system, emerging requested a strict evaluation of countries that are increasing the global money supply, as the United States or Japan.More broadly, the G20 also undertake to give more reliable figures and recent state of their oil production if they have one, or their stocks.

"It was a meeting of G20 subsided very, very constructive", welcomed the governor of the Banque de France, Christian Noyer. The G20 now hopes to finger the target at the summit in Pittsburgh in 2009: economic growth "strong, sustainable and balanced" for the world. A meeting of G20 finance on development issues, is scheduled for Washington in the upcoming meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in late September.

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