Climate, Energy: the alarm IEA
It is a paradox: when the estimated 6.6 billion Earthlings are more than ever energy hungry, we learn that investment in exploration and production of gas and oil prices have fallen 19% in 2009 . This is one of the most surprising information emerging from the voluminous (691 pages) Annual Report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IEA), presented on Tuesday in London.
The crisis is the direct cause of this reversal. With a corollary for the first time in forty years, global emissions of greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by about 3%."The fall in investment is bad news, says Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA, because when demand for oil will restart with the economic recovery, without production there could be a very sharp rise in oil prices, which in turn weaken the recovery. "
Despite this somewhat reassuring about the IEA is accused of overestimating oil reserves and minimize the risk of a shortage. So says an article published appropriately on Tuesday by the Guardian. Citing sources within the IEA, the English daily spoke of American pressures. Accusations "baseless", countered Tuesday Fatih Birol, claiming neutrality IEA reports proofread by more than 200 outside experts. "We are always criticized, but we usually blame myself instead of being too alarmist," says economist Turkish agency.Indeed, Fatih Birol ensures that non-OPEC members have reached their peak of production of black gold, not to a distant horizon, but from 2010!
By 2030, 93% of the additional energy demand will come from non-OECD countries (emerging markets and developing countries), starting with China and India. To meet these ogres, even if the international community embarked on an active policy of replacing fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) to fight against climate change, OPEC will increase production by 30% over the past twenty years. According to the IEA, global oil demand would peak around 2025. One thing is certain, Birol summarizes: "The era of cheap oil is over."
"Scenario 450"
Investors, in turn, subject to considerable uncertainty, says he."Everyone expects that this will give the Copenhagen conference on climate," which opens in less than a month. The IEA, founded in 1974 just after the first oil shock to secure supplies of black gold, has now donned the armor of the fighting against climate change. The ministers of the 28 Member States, meeting in Paris last month, support the scenario 450. 450 "parts per million (ppm) is the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions that the atmosphere should not exceed in the second half of the century to avoid an increase in average temperature over 2 ° C. In addition, the UN experts foresee a scenario control. Follow this quota means stop increasing emissions of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020."We show, by country, by developing all the available clean energy and focus on saving energy than the 450 is a realistic scenario, provides Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA, although it will be very difficult. "
The investment, enormous, estimated by the agency to make the energy revolution is 10 500 billion dollars by 2030. But Nobuo Tanaka warned, each year of inaction will cost 500 billion more.
The Agency will depart Does Paris?
London is the annual report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IEA) was presented Tuesday by its director, Nobuo Tanaka, as the organization is based in Paris (XV). Sign of the dispute over the location of the agency? No, the World Energy Outlook is traditionally introduced in the British capital.However, removal of the IEA (200 employees) has been raised in recent months by supporters of greater autonomy from the OECD, its parent organization, and rapprochement with countries outside OECD as China. "I love Paris," said Nobuo Tanaka on Tuesday at Le Figaro. Of reassuring the former minister Roger Karoutchi, French Ambassador to the OECD, which works to calm …
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