"The companies have not shared enough of their profits with their employees, and this could dampen the recovery," says Aneta Markowska, economist at Societe Generale CIB. In the U.S., the share of corporate revenues redistributed to employees has dropped from 59.8% in the second quarter, its lowest level since the Second World War.

Recruitment at half

Paradoxically, "the companies that have entered the crisis with little debt and thus did not need to rebalance their balance sheets, accumulate cash and threaten the recovery," says Aneta Markowska. Their cash is now nearly 6% of their assets, against less than 4.5% before the crisis. A level not seen since the 50s, according to figures from Societe Generale CIB. The most obvious translation of this strategy, they block the hiring.

Natixis, the head of economic research, Patrick Artus, made the same observation. In a classical revival, the increase in profits resulting from investment, thus creating jobs, which in turn produce growth. But this time it's different.'Distortion of revenue sharing to the detriment of employees led to the weakening of wage and salary income, thus accentuating the weakness of domestic demand, "says Patrick Artus in a note. In the U.S., it will need more time to households in debt up to his neck to clean up their finances before eating again.

Uncertainty

If companies are ants and jealously guard their cash flow, because a great uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. Because of fears of fallout in recession, "they do not know what will be their future profits and (in the U.S., Ed) they have difficulty in measuring what the impact of tax measures on the viability of their projects investment ", according to Societe Generale economist IPC.

Growth at half-profits on the rise, "he will have to get used to the difference," said Patrick Artus, who believes this is a trend. First, large groups are investing in emerging markets with high potential, which boosts their results. Then the credit market freeze that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers has scalded. They now want to finance their own investments and not to depend on external funding.

European markets based on the surge on Wall Street Wednesday, but also on purchases cheaply. The NYSE has erased its losses late in the session to close up 0.2%. A technical rebound which was conducted in a context of bad macro news (sales of new homes in July after falling sales in the former, smaller increase than expected orders for durable goods).The Paris markets will also be comforted by Asia which has borrowed the same road this morning as Wall Street.

After consecutive declines (which have seen the ACC lost 2% since Monday), European investors are making purchases on the cheap pending the release of weekly unemployment registration in the United States earlier this afternoon.

Side currencies, the euro remains strong against the dollar. In morning trade, one euro is worth 1.2710 dollars (0.31%) and 1.2712 in mid-session.

The Paris markets react to the small decline in unemployment in France in July, fell after the market closes Wednesday.More importantly, they welcomed the battery results fell before the opening.

Accor flies, Gemalto tumbles

For the first time in years, the industrial take over ads on macroeconomic indicators:

After his former branch of service Edenred, Accor issued this morning. The group announced a net loss for the first half of 64 million euros against a loss of 236 million a year earlier. Despite very conservative outlook, the stock market welcomed the performance: Accor shares are leading the ACC with an increase of 4.68% to 24.6 euros.

Credit Agricole has reported a net profit of 379 million euros in the second quarter, well above the 280 million expected by the markets. Net revenue reached 5.469 billion euros and the cost of risk fell by 13%.Again, the stock appreciates: the titles are among the highest increases with a jump of 3.28% to 10.225 euros.

Bureau Veritas (4.30% to 47.34 euros) announced adjusted net income Group share up 8.9% to 149.5 million euros in the first half. Turnover was up 1.5% to 1.349 billion euros. The group aims to increase its sales in the second half of the order of 10% and expects a "slight increase" in operating margin over the full year 2010 on the current scope.

Gemalto has reported net earnings fell to 63 million euros in the first half and sales of 840 million euros, up 5%. The group said banking on accelerated growth in the second half, with a turnover of over one billion euros over the period.The title gives 2.63% to 28.67 euros.

Bongrain (+0.19%), Lagardere (0.41%), Stallergenes (1.34%) and Etam (1.56%) will release after the market closes.

Wednesday, L'Oreal (5.77% to 80.14 euros) announced an operating profit up sharply in the first half and higher expectations. This performance allows the number one global cosmetics find a level of operating margin similar to the record first half of 2008.

L'Oreal and Total (0.24%), major shareholders of Sanofi-Aventis (-0.81%) would otherwise be reserved for the proposed acquisition by Genzyme, fearing that the French pharmaceutical group pays its target too expensive , said Wednesday the banking sources told Reuters.

BioAlliance Pharma (5.03%) received European agencies agreed in principle on the filing in mid-2011 the registration dossier of the drug against herpes labialis.The laboratory recorded a strong increase in its turnover in the first half and a net positive.

The Nikkei closed up 0.35%, the Nikkei 225 Index of blue chips gaining 33.01 points to 9570.31 points. In Shanghai, the stock opened up 0.39% Monday, as investors were apparently reassured by the slowdown in manufacturing activity in July, which shows that government efforts to cool the economy seem to be working. For its part, the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong opened up 1.3%, the Hang Seng index gaining 272.2 points to 21,302.01 points in early trade.

The month of July was investor friendly in Paris.Last month, the CAC 40 was well recovered, compared to a decline in June and a memorable month of May in terms of poor performance. Between 1 July and this July 30, the index rose 9.1%. Since the beginning of the year, it remains a decline of 7.45%. Compared to a year ago, it was up 6.3%.

At the front of macroeconomic indicators, two publications will receive special attention this Monday. In Europe, growth in manufacturing output and new orders accelerated, reaching their highest level in three months, according to the latest PMI survey released Monday and conducted by Markit Economics Institute. The PMI index for manufacturing final Eurozone appears already to 56.7 in July against 55.6 in JuneOn the other side of the Atlantic, the ISM manufacturing activity for July will be very guarded, this afternoon at 16:00. The caution about its direction: opinions are divided as to effect its orientation. Nobody knows whether it will be up or if instead will settle a bit more.

In Europe, investors will also be attentive to the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the ECB. Rates should stay unchanged, but after the recent stress testing of banks in Europe, questions are likely to put Jean-Claude Trichet said on strong banks and a possible return to normal in the interbank market

On the face values, we will monitor:

BNP Paribas (4.59%) which unveiled on Monday its quarterly results before the market in good order. They are far beyond expectations, thanks to lower provisions.The title gained 4.19% to 54.92 euros. The title brings in its wake Societe Generale (2.97%). For its part, Credit Agricole gained 2.33% to 10.75 euros.

Air Liquide (1.29% to 87.48 euros) on Monday confirmed its objective of increasing its net profit in 2010 after an acceleration of growth in sales between the first and second quarter, thanks emerging markets.

France Telecom (1.09% to 16.24 euros) has initiated discussions with shareholders Meditel second operator in Morocco, to acquire 40% stake in it, according to the Moroccan weekly News, suggesting a possible investment of 650 million euros. Title varies slightly to 16.05 euros.

Eurazeo announced Saturday that entered into exclusive negotiations with the U.S. fund Carlyle for the sale of the hotel chain B & B.Eurazeo gaining 1.74% to 49.73 euros.

The construction group Vinci (2.44% to 38.05 euros) was selected Friday by the Government for the concession and the construction of the airport at Notre-Dame-des-Landes, who should take over from 2017 the air service from Nantes-Atlantique.

Areva (-2.96% to 354 euros) on Friday, as expected, half results penalized by an additional provision under the Finnish EPR OL3, but confirmed its 2010 targets.

Eiffage (2.21% to 39.57 euros) published a quarterly revenue up 2.2% and said its order book stood at EUR 10.8 billion at July 1 ( +4.4% at constant since 1 April 2010), more than 11 months of activity.

APRR (stable) – The Socialist leader Arnaud Montebourg said it had seized the financial markets authority (AMF) to try and block the delisting of Autoroutes Paris Rhin Rhone (APRR) requested by Eiffarie, a joint venture of Eiffage and the Australian Macquarie Group

The group also reported a net profit of 843 million euros between January and June 2010. But excluding the gain realized from the sale of its subsidiary Alstom Transmission & Distribution and Schneider, who has reported EUR 1.3 billion to Areva, the accounts are in the red.Last year, during the first half, earnings reached 161 million euros.

Operating profit, excluding capital gains, it is clearly in the red at -485 000 000 euros, cons -170 000 000 euros in the first half of 2009.

Impairments chain

The world's largest producer of uranium indicates that it found "a depreciation of 300 million euros on some of its mining assets, because new data looking at futures prices of uranium.

There is also a provision of 400 million euros in late June increased to cover additional costs due to further delays, construction of the EPR at Olkiluoto in Finland.

It was the eighth consecutive allowance increased by Areva on this site.In total, Areva has recorded 2.6 billion euros of provisions for OL3 after the 367 million recorded in the first half cash advance loan. This third generation reactor will cost a total of 5.7 billion euros, while the original price was 3 billion euros.

The site has actually taken four years behind its original schedule, due to a series of technical difficulties. Scheduled to start in April 2009, the EPR should not enter service until late 2012 or early 2013.

An agreement with EDF

This publication comes as the Elysée has just demanded that the builder of reactors and EDF sign a strategic partnership agreement covering all areas of their mutual interest in nuclear energy.

The possibility of the rise in the capital of EDF in Areva will be examined in the context of this agreement.Areva also has proceed before the end of 2010 a capital increase of up to 15% to finance the necessary investments for its development.

Net debt stood at Areva 5.152 billion euros at end June 2010 against 6.193 billion at end 2009, for equity of 8.7 billion.

As part of its financing plan, Areva has also planned to divest its holdings from 25.6% in Eramet and 10.9% in STMicroelectronics, which must remain under public ownership.

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The group prefers to focus on sales amounting to 545 million euros, up 28.1%. A performance that the group owes its branch production, the most important, which recorded a sales growth of 30% to 219.4 million euros.

"Despite unfavorable wind conditions in the U.S. and very unfavorable to the United Kingdom, wind generation has benefited from full year impact of activations in 2009, notably in France and the United States, new facilities built in first half of 2010 in Europe and very good wind conditions in Portugal, "the company said payday advance. EDF EN has increased its wind power capacity of 156.1 megawatts (MW) gross in the first half and its capacity of 61.3 megawatts photovoltaic peak (MWp) gross.

For the future, EDF Energies Nouvelles has confirmed its forecast for EBITDA of between 430 and 450 million euros "and its goal of late 2012 installed capacity of 4200 MW net with 500 MWp of solar."

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A view shared by Michael Emmanuel Thuy Munis and Hassim, respectively partner and manager of the consulting firm NPT Consultants specializes in the banking and insurance.

Lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – French banks (NBP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis) Will they pass the exam?

Without a doubt! These stress tests are a bit like the Bachelor: almost everyone will have it in Europe, which makes him lose credibility. In fact, the findings of these tests of resistance will not argue not much. What to watch, what are the assumptions.

Which are these assumptions?

Assumptions on growth, unemployment, inflation and real estate are set by the Bank of France. There are two scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. For example, last year, the first was zero growth and the second a recession of 2.5%.

From a standpoint of the bank as a company, the exercise was to downgrade by one notch rating default probability given to each level of the portfolio of the bank.

For example, if a risk of default is currently 2, the bank simulates a situation where the risk is rated 4. All branches of the portfolio and are staggered. On seeing the situation deteriorate and in its asset portfolio, the bank must protect themselves against-some of these risks and increase its mass of capital and liquidity to cope with any difficulties. This is also the challenge of the recommendations of Basel III, currently in talks.

These assumptions pose any real conditions of a major economic crisis?

The assumptions and asked did not reflect the reality of a major shock No fax cash loans. They lay the groundwork for a gradual and slow recovery, but do not take into account the possibility of a relapse into recession, for example (the famous "double-dip").

Neither of the possible restructuring of the debt of a country of weight outside the EU. As Russia. While in Europe, as was the case with Greece, for example, member states have shown they would join forces in order not to leave one of his bankruptcy, what will happen if Russia had to reschedule its debt? We can not know, but the situation would be catastrophic.

What are the political success of these stress tests?

There is a little over a year, the U.S. findings were providing stress testing of 19 banks very good (only two have failed), which had been boosted confidence in the U.S. banking system after the blow of Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.And after that 10% of U.S. institutions bancires put the key under the door!

European markets also need to be reassured, and policies have any interest.Ultimately, these stress tests are different goal in mind that European governments are behind their banks.

French banks can they go bankrupt?

In France, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, which spans international, will never be dropped by the French state, because the consequences of a failure of one of these institutions are unimaginable, especially in terms of employment.

If they had to go through another very difficult phase, the state will play its role of lender of last resort, even though the price of a huge debt.

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* BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis.

The prosecutor, Jean-Michel Aldebert, head of the financial section of the floor, asked him: "Have you created fictitious transactions to mask losses or gains?"

Jerome Kerviel: "Yes, Eliot [note: the computer system available to all].

-Have you provided false explanations to your hierarchy?

Non-credible explanation, yes.

Have you crafted fake e-mails?

Yes. "

But the magistrate, silhouette dry, sharp profile of a bird of prey, hushed tone, did not finish.He comes back three days during which, in early 2008, the montages of the trader-delusional about 50 billion euros pledged not covered market that will drive 4.9 billion of losses-have been uncovered: "During the week weekend of January 18 to 20, you do nothing to help the Societe Generale. Why?.

Jérôme Kerviel: "On Saturday the 19th, I was asked only about 1.9 billion that had won in 2007. I was impressed, intimidated, stressed by the officials that I had never seen …

-You sound like a person telling police custody on drugs! You had positions totaling 50 billion, why do not you say?

"It was not the topic this time bad credit payday advance. I answered the questions on the 1.4 billion point.

A few minutes earlier, the accused had replied on the same theme to questions, subtly, by Judge Virginia Tilmont. Especially this one: "Did you feel that challenge the system?"

Jerome Kerviel: "Absolutely not. In trading rooms is a little stash of national sport [note: some of its activities]. Everyone does, I perhaps more than others, but I tried to bring the most money in the bank. " A good little soldier, somehow, even if his methods were not always orthodox.

The boom is fully stretched to their consideration that Mr. Metzner. The lawyer for Mr. Kerviel comes out of his sleeve-mail dated Dec. 17, 2007, from the time his client has 1.4 billion euros and is preparing to invest 50 in the disastrous conditions that known.This email is signed by a certain Raymond Bunge supervisor Claire Dumas, who represents the SocGen this trial. It reads: "Good soldier must learn to disobey more out of the box".

Mr. Metzner Jerome Kerviel: "It reminds you what you asked?

The accused, not surprisingly, all smiles: "Yes."

So what if, as noted by Ms. Dumas, that assessment involved an employee of the department, which had no time to play with the funds lost money from his employer. What matters, after the wrong time spent by Jerome Kerviel, is having the last word. Jean Veil was understood that launches the formula fetish Mr. Metzner: "We agree. And for the first time, the bank puts the laugh on his side. In CHIP is a trick for the defense.

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The legal provision pushed Dell to revise downwards its forecast for first quarter 2011. Net income for the company is reduced by $ 100 million to 341 million dollars. In turn, earnings per share decreased by 5 cents to $ 0.17 Easy Pay day loans.The result before exceptional items is not affected.

The SEC investigation into accounting practices and financial Dell and its business relationship with Intel, accused of anti-competitive practices, the computer maker said in a statement. Dell said it is in discussions with the SEC to settle amicably the investigation, adding that this did not imply recognition or denial of suspicion.

Following the announcement, as Dell was losing 2.5% in trading after-hours trade.

"The title should respond by increasing", predicted the analytes Natixis SecuTire this morning before the opening of the Bourse de Paris, describing the rehabilitation objectives of the company as "clearly good news." Indeed, the Pernod Ricard shares climbed 3.7%, to 65.3 euros in early trade on the CAC 40.

"The strong performance was boosted in part by favorable comparison bases and technical effects. However, this publication shows significant signs of recovery, "entrust strategists.

In home counseling Aurel, who published a note on Thursday on the group, expectations are "substantially" exceeded.The revenue expected by the consensus of 1.4 billion euros. Aurel immediately raised its target price on the value of 52-58 euros (recommendation to "hold"). Wednesday evening, the Pernod Ricard are already mounted by 2.7%, and quoted at around 65 euros. A true performance against the Wednesday meeting.

Current operating profit seen up 3%

According to the explanation of the group, good sales were due to a "strong consumption growth in emerging economies, improved conditions in some key markets like the United States and Russia, and the effects of destocking and shifts of Easter and Chinese New Year.

Pernod Ricard has therefore decided to revise upward its outlook for its fiscal year 2009/2010 with organic growth of around 3% of operating profit, at the top of the previously announced target range of 1% growth in 3%.

Debt restructuring

Last March, the company headed by Pierre Pringuet announced its successful bond issue for $ 1.2 billion. The group's debt of wines and spirits reached 10.3 billion euros at December 31, 2009.

The world number two, whose brands Chivas Regal whiskey and Havana Club rum – among others – make its fame, has set a goal to balance "progressively" 50/50 funding between bank loans and bond debt, d by 2013.The division is currently 25/75.

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Goldman Sachs has managed to earn 3.7 billion dollars in betting, starting in 2007, the collapse of the mortgage-market. In doing so, the giant Wall Street acted against the interest of some of its customers, which it sold securities that he knew "toxic". This is the conclusion, after months of investigation, the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations of the U.S. Senate.

Tuesday, during public hearings stretched on Capitol Hill, Lloyd Blankfein, the head of the giant Wall Street, has categorically denied these allegations."We do not speculate massively downward in the housing market and we certainly do not bet against our clients," he was forbidden under the spotlight, saying that even on the mortgage-market, Goldman Sachs has lost about $ 1.2 billion in 2007-2008.

"Nobody in the management of Goldman Sachs has never asked me to bet on a decline in the subprime market," added before skeptical senators, Joshua Birnbaum, the former head of structured products of the bank, also on the bench defendants.

Convinced otherwise, armed with emails and internal documents seized in the bank, the debonair Senator Carl Levin, glasses pavement at the end of his nose, led a determined assault Tuesday. But the chairman of the committee was confronted with a wall.He vainly tried to tell the past and present officials of Goldman Sachs called before him (including one French employee), how could they believe in the quality of debt issued by mortgage lenders whose reputation was terrible. Receivables classified as "business of shit" in an email exchange between two bank officials. "How many of these" affairs of shit "did you sell to your customers? asked, exasperated, Senator Levin fast cash advance. You've sold hundreds of millions. "

Bankers Daniel Sparks and Michael Swenson, impassive without being arrogant, but obviously confident of the merits of their point of view, seemed not to understand or what they asked or what they were charged.They also questioned the methods of calculating profits of Goldman Sachs selected by the committee.

Battle of Senate proceedings

According to Senator Levin, the investment bank has yet actually decided in late 2006 to a major cleanup of its accumulated risk on securities backed by the real estate markets whose collapse loomed. By discipline, to limit its risks and if possible in the hope of profiting from the trend, the bank had sold to investors and deliberately chosen for their credulity his titles too "toxic"."We have not been systematically and significantly" net short position "on derivatives of residential mortgages in 2007 and 2008," replied Lloyd Blankfein.

Meanwhile in the Senate floor, Democratic leaders and Republicans arguing over procedural votes before engaging in substantive debate on the reform of Wall Street. The Conservatives want by all means restrict the scope of Democrat Bill before it is submitted to a plenary debate in the room. A compromise is always likely, because both parties want to correct the excesses that precipitated the financial crisis.But the Republican minority wants to take his time, while Democrats want to take this case Goldman Sachs to prohibit such banks that have access to the discount window the Fed to speculate on their own account.

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