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For Christine Lagarde at the Ministry of Finance, Dominique Strauss-Kahn as IMF, Jean-Claude Trichet at the ECB (European Central Bank), confidence is at an appointment. The results of stress tests, tests of resistance of 91 European banks (including four French *) in an economic environment deteriorated, which will be announced Friday, will be good. Rumors even show a successful Franco-Belgian Dexia and the Belgian KBC, however fragile, in this review.

A view shared by Michael Emmanuel Thuy Munis and Hassim, respectively partner and manager of the consulting firm NPT Consultants specializes in the banking and insurance.

Lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – French banks (NBP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis) Will they pass the exam?

Without a doubt! These stress tests are a bit like the Bachelor: almost everyone will have it in Europe, which makes him lose credibility. In fact, the findings of these tests of resistance will not argue not much. What to watch, what are the assumptions.

Which are these assumptions?

Assumptions on growth, unemployment, inflation and real estate are set by the Bank of France. There are two scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. For example, last year, the first was zero growth and the second a recession of 2.5%.

From a standpoint of the bank as a company, the exercise was to downgrade by one notch rating default probability given to each level of the portfolio of the bank.

For example, if a risk of default is currently 2, the bank simulates a situation where the risk is rated 4. All branches of the portfolio and are staggered. On seeing the situation deteriorate and in its asset portfolio, the bank must protect themselves against-some of these risks and increase its mass of capital and liquidity to cope with any difficulties. This is also the challenge of the recommendations of Basel III, currently in talks.

These assumptions pose any real conditions of a major economic crisis?

The assumptions and asked did not reflect the reality of a major shock No fax cash loans. They lay the groundwork for a gradual and slow recovery, but do not take into account the possibility of a relapse into recession, for example (the famous "double-dip").

Neither of the possible restructuring of the debt of a country of weight outside the EU. As Russia. While in Europe, as was the case with Greece, for example, member states have shown they would join forces in order not to leave one of his bankruptcy, what will happen if Russia had to reschedule its debt? We can not know, but the situation would be catastrophic.

What are the political success of these stress tests?

There is a little over a year, the U.S. findings were providing stress testing of 19 banks very good (only two have failed), which had been boosted confidence in the U.S. banking system after the blow of Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.And after that 10% of U.S. institutions bancires put the key under the door!

European markets also need to be reassured, and policies have any interest.Ultimately, these stress tests are different goal in mind that European governments are behind their banks.

French banks can they go bankrupt?

In France, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, which spans international, will never be dropped by the French state, because the consequences of a failure of one of these institutions are unimaginable, especially in terms of employment.

If they had to go through another very difficult phase, the state will play its role of lender of last resort, even though the price of a huge debt.

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* BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis.

Paris is burning there? This was the message last week by Century 21, one of the major networks of estate agents (850 in France). Prices of existing homes jumped 15% in the capital between the first halves 2009 and 2010. Let us all keep, replied two days later Fnaim: the trade association which brings together 12,000 independent agencies estimated up to 6.8%.

The two behemoths differ as much in their diagnoses of the French market. When Century 21 evaluates to 8.5% average increase in prices over the last twelve months, Fnaim reported an almost stagnant (+0.1%).

As regards property each looks after their own door, because nothing is more difficult to measure changes in prices of existing homes, all different from each other by definition. For its part, Century 21 invokes a simple method."No transaction is forgotten: the collection of information is done automatically from the software used when signing the preliminary contract (promise of sale)," said Laurent Vimont, network chair. Then simply compare the average price per square meter of transactions between two time periods to calculate the evolution.

Century 21 refutes the argument that sellers of "nice apartments" have retained their property during the recession of 2008-2009 winter to put them back on the market in greater numbers in the first half of 2010 when the economy restarts. That does it not distort price comparisons from one period to another? "Not because we are working on samples large enough for this" quality effect "does not play. Our transactions have focused on 23,200 units in France in the first half of 2010, with 1536 sales in Paris, "says one.

Battle figures

Fnaim whose records are also on the "promise of sale", is based on a more sophisticated methodology and relatively delicate absolutely free credit score. "We correct the observed effects of price structures, including the size, location, comfort items, etc. …», explains Nicolas Thouvenin, the Director General of Fnaim. It also boasts a high number of transactions (5000 per month), 10% of the national market.

This method is quite close to the observation model established by notaries, with scientific backing from INSEE for 20 years. Except as notaries, considered the "justices" in statistics, working on sales contracts themselves, so with a delay of at least three months.Other disability, notary fees are not legal obligation to back the information to their rooms (85% do in Paris).

The Housing Secretariat is closely following this battle of numbers. After asking the National Council of Statistical Information (CNIS) a general report on "improving statistics, real estate and construction," which was presented in late March, Benoist Appeared plans to implement some of its recommendations "from the start," says one to his office.

Notaries will now be forced to disclose all their transactions to feed price indices. And they will work on the "pre-contracts" in order to better fit the situation. The reform should come into force from the fourth quarter of 2010 in Ile-de-France and the first quarter of 2011 in the rest of the country, says one.In addition, a device "calibration for private producers of statistics (like Century 21 and Fnaim) would be operational by spring 2011. A sort of tutelage that professionals look more or less enthusiasm and skepticism.

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Diplomatic relations between Switzerland and Germany could still suffer. After the controversial purchase of a CD from Switzerland containing lists of suspected tax evaders in Germany launches massive search operation in the German subsidiary of Swiss bank Credit Suisse. Objective: to update the 1100 alleged customers of the bank suspected of evading taxes, and employees of the bank suspected to have helped.

The raids took place simultaneously in 13 cities and were conducted by 150 officers. Credit Suisse, which remained silent on the subject, has finally reacted by saying "cooperate with the authorities." "This is an ongoing investigation, so we can give more information," says the facility.

Unsurprisingly

Since March 19 this year, the Dusseldorf prosecutor's office suggested that he was investigating cons these clients in the fight against tax evasion carried out by the government. The purchase of the CD has already led almost 12.000à denounce himself, according to last count, in late March.

Credit Suisse is not the only Swiss bank in the sights of German authorities. UBS industry leader, is also subject of an investigation, not prosecution, but the authority of financial sector supervision Authority (BaFin).

Negotiations stalled

These searches involved in full discussions between Bern and Berlin on improving the exchange of information between the two countries payday loans in 1 hour. Both governments wish to reach an agreement that also aims to avoid double taxation.

In late March, the finance ministers of the two states signed a convention in this sense, but it is still not signed. Both governments face difficult issues such as control of German assets placed in Switzerland. A working group has also been mandated to expand the proposals and make findings in the fall.

Meanwhile, the convention is not in force, allowing Germany to put pressure on Swiss institutions. The spokesman for the German Finance Ministry wants yet reassuring: "We assume that the negotiations with Switzerland will continue to be constructive and to unfold in an atmosphere of mutual trust." He says they will, if successful, to "render obsolete" files using File Swiss bank clients stolen and resold.

The German technique is the same as that adopted in respect of Liechtenstein. In 2008, the Secret Service had bought a CD of stolen banking data, to 4.2 million euros. Having conducted several surveys, they managed to uncover many fraudsters, including the former boss of Deutsche Post, Klaus Zumwinkel. Under pressure, Liechtenstein was finally ratified an agreement on exchange of information on German assets located within the principality.

D-Day for Marcello Convite the boss of the small company that wants tricolor Carmat conquer the world with its first total artificial heart biocompatible. This Tuesday, in fact, that the start-up takes its first steps on the Paris Stock Exchange, having packed the heart of investors. In difficult market conditions, the SME accompanied by Truffle Capital, its largest shareholder (30%) and EADS, has done better than expected, raising 14.5 million euros at a price of 18.50 euros per share enhancing from the outset the company 75 million. A great appreciation for its Director General who has taken brilliantly in the year, new to him, the financial road show.

This Italian 57 years, trained in computer technology and speaks five languages, has not missed any arguments to "sell" the young company and its innovative and promising.His prosthesis, implantable total artificial heart developed by Professor Carpentier of the Georges Pompidou Hospital, from 2013 should help save tens of thousands of cardiac patients. A challenge that fascinates Marcello Convite former IBM and Fiat, paid for thirty years in the life sciences. He held until last September to senior posts in the American International Edwards Lifesciences, who had just bought to Professor Carpentier's revolutionary concept of cardiac valves. For Dr. Philippe Pouletty, CEO of Truffle Capital, with the artificial heart (which will remain French …), Carmat has "all the ingredients to become a global technology company beautiful. "A great adventure of entrepreneurs, leading the veteran of the biotechnology industry has also brought public in April and companies Neovacs Deinove.

Carmat is, in fact, primarily a story of men.An R & D secrets first, initiated in EADS by Jean-Luc Lagardere and Professor Carpentier and developed for 15 years by a team of engineers led by former "Mr. International" of EADS, Jean-Claude Cadudal, president of Carmat.

Beside him, the engineer, former head of EADS big projects, and "very good teacher," Patrick Coulombier, also played a key role. It is today, with Marcello Convite DGA society. It was created in 2008 under the leadership of Philippe Pouletty because, after the release of préprototype, "he had to go to the next level." By convincing the engineers of the European giant switch in the start-up and live the adventure.

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The quest for investors to be difficult for Tony Hayward, BP's boss. According to the special edition of the newsletter Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) to be published Monday, the emirate of Abu Dhabi would be reluctant to invest in the oil. The richest emirate in the federation of the UAE would not be accountable to the U.S. Department of Justice, which wants to want to be informed of any transfer of assets from BP. The Sovereign wealth fund Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), became in 2007 the largest shareholder in Citigroup, is already in full court battle with the giant American banker whom he accused of fraud.

If the information is confirmed, it would be a setback for Tony Hayward, last Wednesday, went to Abu Dhabi, to convince the influential Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed to buy 10% stake BP.

Abu Dhabi, however, may "want to take stakes in certain assets of BP in the region, but provided they have no problems with the U.S. Department of Justice," says MEES.

Leverage counterparts

In addition to the SWFs in the Middle East, BP tries to seduce her American counterparts. According to the Sunday Times this Sunday, the tanker is currently in exclusive negotiations with the U.S. Apache Corporation to sell up to $ 12 billion of assets, including its share in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, the largest field North America. Apache, which is worth 29 billion dollars in stock, has already signed with BP repurchases in the past.But this operation would be of a different scale: Prudhoe Bay produces 390,000 barrels per day, or 15% of the production of the North Sea.

The partners in the field of BP, Exxon and Conoco Philips, will certainly have rights of first refusal on the part of BP. This dernierpourrait allow them to buy if they offer the same price Apache. The Sunday Times also understands that the U.S. government would have allowed Exxon to study a possible takeover of BP.

The Sunday Times added that BP would also soon sell its 60% interest in Pan American Energy, a producer in Argentina. The acquisition of this share worth $ 9 billion Chinese CNOOC and try the Argentinian Bridas. BP is also expected to sell various other assets, including its activities in Venezuela and Colombia, worth one billion dollars, as well as those in Vietnam, a similar value.

The government is continuing its investigation

All these operations are part of the constitution by BP to a reserve fund of 20 billion dollars (15.8 billion euros) pledged U.S. authorities to ensure the cleanup costs and damages associated with the tide black.

So he has launched an operation which is expected to completely contain the leak, BP is still feeling the pressure from U.S. authorities. The Justice Department has announced that Sunday, through the voice of Minister Eric Holder would continue to investigate the causes of the spill that pollutes the Gulf of Mexico from late April to determine whether to proceed with indictments.

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Standard & Poor's finally penalized AREVA, judging the profitability of the group "depressed" for two years. The notes of French nuclear group, which was under surveillance by the rating agency since April 14 last, was finally degraded Monday by two notches to 'BBB +, cons A.

The first reason advanced by the agency for "the provision of 400 million euros related to the recently announced construction of the Olkiluoto 3 reactor in Finland. The further delay of the Finnish EPR, one of four currently under construction by Areva (with Flamanville in the Channel and two other Chinese), forcing the group to a new provision which would involve a negative operating result for the first half 2010. In total, the group has been provisioned 2.7 billion euros for this site should be completed in late 2012 with four years late.

S & P added that the profitability of Areva would also be affected by a "conflict" is contrasted with EDF about the Georges Besse enrichment plant, in the Drome. Both groups fail to reach an agreement to renew the contract which ensures the Areva uranium enrichment EDF.

The rating agency does have a stable outlook on the debt rating of Areva, convinced that the group should be able to implement successfully the remainder of the disposal plan and its plan to increase capital , strengthening its balance sheet.

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From our special correspondent in Toronto.

Whatever the fans of austerity, the G20 Toronto has not been that of rigor. On the form, the exorbitant cost of the summit – 1.2 billion Canadian dollars, or 900 million Euro-shows that developed countries like Canada, still have strong reservations to spend public money to do their self-promotion. On the merits, the U.S. calls for further spending in the short term have been heard, even if Barack Obama had a hard time leaving scope for "recovery" in the final communique.

"We need to let it work through our plans for fiscal stimulus to consolidate the recovery," said the G20."Adjustments in the largest simultaneous countries could undermine the recovery," said the statement, which also bears the imprint of major emerging countries (China, India, Brazil, Russia).

Budgetary discipline

Pessimistic about the recovery, deemed "fragile and uneven, very worried about the" rate of unemployment reached unacceptable levels in certain countries, "the G20 always gives priority to growth. "Although Mrs Merkel has agreed to make more growth!" Says Nicolas Sarkozy.

For the first time, however, the virtues of fiscal restraint is recognized at the highest level."Sound public finances are essential to sustain the recovery, giving some leeway in case of a new shock, and avoid leaving future generations a legacy of deficits and debt" indicates the G20.

A commitment risk

But beware of plans rigor rushed! The G20 did not advocate austerity at all stages payday loans for self employed. "Fiscal adjustment needs to be carefully calibrated to support private demand," it said. "The consolidation measures should be phased in over time, growth, and differentiated according to country."

Angela Merkel welcomes the significant progress: the G20 endorsed the objectives of deficits and debt, modeled on the European Stability Pact, sanctions and less.The G20 developed countries commit to reduce their deficit in half by 2013 and to stabilize their debt to GDP by 2016. He was a Canadian proposal, which the first Prime Minister Stephen Harper to declare victory, after a summit a small scale.

But this commitment amounted G20 does not fear large world. The European Union should achieve this goal without problems, ensures José Manuel Barroso. France has already pledged to reduce its deficit 8% today to 3% in 2013. As the United States, they feel just referred.In its letter to its partners in the G20 to warn them against the rigors, Barack Obama has renewed its commitment to reducing the U.S. budget deficit by half in 2013 to return to deficits of 3% in 2015.

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This is a total war being waged now Google and Apple, opening the front lines in all areas of mobile Internet. Mobile advertising terminals via the operating system and applications, the giant online research and computer manufacturer will not release one ounce of ground to their opponents. That's why Google, who made a fortune during a decade in marketing advertisements on its search engine, is preparing to start selling music online.

A year after the VAT reduction in catering, where are the conservators of commitments with the government? In the context of reduced public expenditure, where the measure put in place by 1 July 2009 is being challenged for its cost – about 3 billion euros – one of the main unions of restaurant firmly defends the record of restorers.

On the lower prices promised the advance Synhorcat containing figures from INSEE, reduced by 1.7% in prices. Far, indeed, the 3% promised at the signing of the contract establishing the future VAT at 5.5%. But better than the forecasts of the Secretary of State for Trade, Herve Novelli, who requested last December restaurants to limit their price increases, given the economic crisis, the level of inflation.

A decline also practiced mainly by large chains, which have clearly made this issue a sales and communication. Today Synhorcat not hesitate to praise the French restaurant as "cheap": "80% of meals in France costs less than 15 euros," he said beforehand. Not sure the French, whose purchasing power remains a major concern, hear it that way.

An agreement "historic" on wages

On the employment front, too, success is not free No teletrack payday loans. While restaurant owners had agreed, in consideration of the reduction in VAT, to create 20,000 permanent jobs and 20,000 contracts for professional learning or within 2 years, Synhorcat announces that for the moment creations 5700 jobs.The objective, however, seemed difficult to achieve in terms of economic conditions.

The only real success of the VAT reduction: the agreement on wage conditions in the restaurant, described as "historic" by Hervé Novelli. "We are hiring today with a salary 25% above the law", welcomes the Synhorcat. Wages have indeed been reassessed 5% when the non-frames increases leveled averaged 1.1% in 2009. A mutual health has been created, and employees receive an annual bonus equivalent to 2% of their annual salary, capped at 500 euros.

Employees are however not the only benefit from the reduction of VAT in 2009, the catering market has indeed registered a positive growth, and an estimated turnover of 72.5 billion euros, posting also Synhorcat.

Pernod Ricard is pleased to announce on Thursday morning, up 14% of its turnover in the third quarter of fiscal shifted to 1.54 billion euros. And rise at the same time, prospects for the entire year.

"The title should respond by increasing", predicted the analytes Natixis SecuTire this morning before the opening of the Bourse de Paris, describing the rehabilitation objectives of the company as "clearly good news." Indeed, the Pernod Ricard shares climbed 3.7%, to 65.3 euros in early trade on the CAC 40.

"The strong performance was boosted in part by favorable comparison bases and technical effects. However, this publication shows significant signs of recovery, "entrust strategists.

In home counseling Aurel, who published a note on Thursday on the group, expectations are "substantially" exceeded.The revenue expected by the consensus of 1.4 billion euros. Aurel immediately raised its target price on the value of 52-58 euros (recommendation to "hold"). Wednesday evening, the Pernod Ricard are already mounted by 2.7%, and quoted at around 65 euros. A true performance against the Wednesday meeting.

Current operating profit seen up 3%

According to the explanation of the group, good sales were due to a "strong consumption growth in emerging economies, improved conditions in some key markets like the United States and Russia, and the effects of destocking and shifts of Easter and Chinese New Year.

Pernod Ricard has therefore decided to revise upward its outlook for its fiscal year 2009/2010 with organic growth of around 3% of operating profit, at the top of the previously announced target range of 1% growth in 3%.

Debt restructuring

Last March, the company headed by Pierre Pringuet announced its successful bond issue for $ 1.2 billion. The group's debt of wines and spirits reached 10.3 billion euros at December 31, 2009.

The world number two, whose brands Chivas Regal whiskey and Havana Club rum – among others – make its fame, has set a goal to balance "progressively" 50/50 funding between bank loans and bond debt, d by 2013.The division is currently 25/75.

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