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Do not rely on the largest state of the union (13% of the GDP of the United States) to play the role of locomotive and consolidate U.S. growth. "If it accepts, California follows the U.S. economy with a lag of about six months. If the current trends in the late spring and early summer so we begin to see improvements in the California economy. In contrast, California is a leader in the scenario of a relapse into recession, "explains David Shulman, a leader of the university research center Anderson Forecast at UCLA.

"Great Recession" of 2009, as it is called here, has caused more damage than previous recessions in California.Especially, it has exposed the extent of structural problems that were masked by the Internet bubble, then the housing bubble.

An unemployment rate above 13%

"This recession will probably leave lasting scars in California", says Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo, the second largest bank in California. "The state has lost more than one million jobs in this recession so far, representing 14% of job losses in the country. The value of homes plunged an average of 56% from its peak in 2006. The unemployment rate will probably climb to above 13%, which represents nearly 3% higher than the national average unemployment. Today, nearly 700 000 Californians find themselves unemployed for over six months.Rising unemployment aggravates the credit problems of California households and makes it more difficult political choices needed to address fiscal imbalances. None of these cyclical and structural problems are insurmountable, but it will take time to resolve, "says this expert.

At the exit of a cinema last week, the deputy mayor of Stockton and some municipal employees were to sign a list to organize a referendum to block the appropriation by the State of California income tax d 'Ordinary fund city services. Indeed, thanks in part to a forfeiture of $ 2 billion in local revenue that the State of California, managed in the capital of Sacramento, was able last year to plug a hole in its 60 billion budget.This transfer of wealth is now forcing dozens of cities to prepare cuts wages of municipal employees, or even elimination of teaching positions. Already, as an economy measure, since July 2009, employees of the State California, with the exception of emergency personnel are advised to stay home three days a month without pay.

Last summer, California had been, for lack of dollars, pay some of its suppliers with "IOUs." "It is quite possible that the same situation occurs in a few months," confesses a blase tone the senior manager of a local bank. This is the third time since the Great Depression of the 1930s as the "Golden State" also falls down.

In extremis, the European Commission and the U.S. shareholders of Dexia have completed their rough Friday trading on the sacrifices that the Franco-Belgian bank will make. "This agreement ends a period of uncertainty extremely painful for the employees of the bank, welcomed yesterday Pierre Mariani, managing director, that is to say operating officer of Dexia.

In the fall of 2008, as Fortis, Dexia had found just hours after insolvent, unable to find markets daily cash needed to balance its balance sheet. Its shareholders (TFB French, Belgian holding parastatal) had flown to her rescue, and the French, Belgian and Luxembourg. Before the Commission, Dexia has also managed to restrict the amount of state aid to the only reviewed recapitalization States.This has helped limit the damage on the amount of concessions that are required of the bank.

Specifically, Dexia will in 2014 have reduced its balance sheet by 35% compared to what it was in late 2008. A goal that adds only a few assignments, relatively marginal to the restructuring plan prepared by management of Dexia itself: in addition to the scheduled liquidation of its bond portfolio, Dexia will divest its subsidiaries in Italy, Spain, Slovakia and insurance in Turkey.

For Pierre Mariani, the key challenge is won Brussels recognizes the viability of Dexia, and considered credible ability to survive without any government assistance free credit report and score . The operating loss year should reach 20 billion instead of 350 billion expected previously.

We have revised our forecast for 2009-2010 due to factors such as rising sales and cost reductions in all directions, "said in a statement the Executive Director Takahiko Ijichi Toyota."And our emergency plan to increase our profits grew faster than expected," he added.

Toyota said Thursday that the recall of several million vehicles worldwide due to problems of accelerator was going to cost between 170 billion and 180 billion yen (between 1.3 and 1.4 billion euros). The cost of the recall itself should reach about 100 billion yen, and the costs of declining sales that followed between 70 billion and 80 billion, said during a press conference the Chief Executive Toyota Takahiko Ijichi.

At the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Toyota shares ended Thursday on a further drop of 3.52% to 3280 yen. Since January 21, the group's market value has shrunk by almost 22%.

During the worst crisis in the global economy since 1929, electronic commerce has continued to grow. The turnover posted by online merchants reached 25 billion euros, up 26% in one year. Growth continues at a speed so rampant: the activity has increased tenfold since 2002. Electronic commerce now weighs just over 4% of retail sales (excluding food and pharmaceuticals) paydayloans . And projections are optimistic, according to the Federation of e-commerce and distance selling (Fevad), who presented the results Tuesday, the amount could reach 46 billion by 2012. The increase in 2009 was fueled in particular the creation of 17,000 new commercial sites, two every hour!

Following an article in financial daily Les Echos, published on Monday, announcing the forthcoming elimination of certain routes deficit (axes Paris-Arras, Lille, Strasbourg, Nantes and Strasbourg), the Secretary of State for Transport, Dominique Bussereau said on RTL on Tuesday, ensuring that no TGV line would be removed. "The SNCF is a public company, it belongs to all French", said Dominique Bussereau. The state is 100% majority, and naturally she has goals of profitability, competition. Still it has a public service missions, missions planning.

A spokesman for the SNCF had indicated on Monday: "There is no specific plan for the removal of sailings," but a "matching supply with demand." A communication that does not convince Dominique Bussereau."I found the denial of the station a little soft, so I say things clearly," said Secretary of State.

No conflict with William Pépy

Dominique Bussereau has refuted the idea that the future increase in tolls, to finance the renovation of the rail network and that the SNCF, could jeopardize the TGV model. "I said that if the state increases in tolls is that the first line paid by taxpayers are also used by foreign trains," he said. "It is that everyone pays, and that the French taxpayer does not subsidize one day railways German or Italian.

Secretary of State for Transport has also denied being in conflict with the president of SNCF Guillaume Pepy, hostile to the higher tolls. "Guillaume Pepy is an excellent president of SNCF, he said.Just when we increase the tolls, two-thirds to leave the station since RFF (Reseau Ferre de France) gives money to the station for which manages and maintains the infrastructure. It's give and take. "

The Cac 40 opens this Thursday, for the last time in 2009, an increase of 0.38% to 3950.67 points. While many observers predicted another year of declining market share in Europe, the old continent is not doing too badly. With increases hovering around 20%, German and English indexes have achieved performance close to what the CAC 40 should finally be realized in 2009 at the end of this session shortened. For now, the French index has gained 22.3% since 1 January.

The activity should be reduced, particularly since no statistics are expected today.After closing at 14.30 it will still leave the United States, weekly statistics on employment.

Values follow

The values related to raw materials should be encouraged by new record annual zinc, aluminum and copper in Shanghai.

Geci International has conducted a capital increase reserved to two investors for $ 7.6 million.

The suspense was lifted on the eve of a meeting of oil cartel in Luanda. Abdallah el-Badri, secretary general of the organization, said Monday the consensus between the different member countries. An increase in OPEC production "is not in the radar" for next year, he also said, saying the current price levels were "very comfortable".

"Stocks (…) are a little high," then said Abdullah el-Badri, adding that the cartel, which is not less than 40% of world production, was to "bring them back to reasonable levels."

It has, finally, stressed the importance of meeting production quotas imposed on member countries. In late 2008, OPEC had agreed to remove the oil market 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to stem the collapse in oil prices which had touched $ 30 a barrel.In November, the 11 members bound by quotas (excluding Iraq) pumped 1.6 million bpd more than its official ceiling, according to the International Atomic Energy.

Philippe Zaouati released last October "Responsible Investing: in search of new values to finance" published by Lines benchmarks.

Lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – What is the impact of the crisis on the demand for socially responsible investment (SRI)? Philippe Zaouati We first asked whether the crisis was not going to put the SRI in the background, because of other challenges faced investors (liquidity, market downturn). But in fact it has strengthened doubts about the liability of investors, and the need for simple products, with maturities of medium or long term. Historically, every crisis in financial markets has strengthened a little more investor interest in SRI: this was particularly the case after financial scandals related to Enron, WorldCom, or Vivendi.And this growth occurs with a ratchet effect: in other words, when we begin to invest responsibly, because we are convinced of the usefulness of these investments, there is no return back. But such products, now recognized by institutional investors remains unknown individuals.

Some believe however that SRI is primarily a marketing argument for management companies. What do you say? Of the managers who are interested in SRI, some are primarily interested in the potential of this market. But there are also many houses management that invest in dedicated teams, recruiting specialists extra-financial analysis, in addition to traditional financial analysts.For example, at Natixis AM, we recruited seven people who analyze only the environmental and social impact of companies and their governance, and this team will be strengthened in 2010 through new recrutements.De such dedicated teams bring their own assessment socially responsible companies, and not confined to incorporate the findings of CRAs extra financial times are updated every year or every two years. It is therefore essential for an asset manager to bring its own expertise in their management choices.Similarly, if a manager is satisfied with the credit ratings established by Moody's and Fitch to make its investment decisions, it is not serious.

How do you explain that Islamic finance is more media that SRI investments, while their positions are close? The investment managers in the Anglo-Saxon are designed as fund exclusion: companies whose products or practices do not respect the moral convictions upheld by the fund are excluded from the portfolio. It's the classic case of defense industries, tobacco, wines and spirits, not to mention companies in pornography and games. The philosophy of these funds is very close to the ethical funds, such funds islamiques.Mais there are other types of SRI investments, including those who advocate an approach of "best student", which are most prevalent in France by example.In these funds, the managers invest in every sector of companies that provide the greatest effort in limiting the impact of their activities on the environment, which seek to make social policy and governance. The general public just yet understand the logic of such funds, which are to encourage good practices, but whose message is not very clear. This probably explains why these funds are less known and less publicized so that thematic funds on the environment or renewable energy, for example.

How do you expect demand investment managers? The demand will undoubtedly increase in coming years.Starting next January, the regulations require each such company to include at least a savings fund solidarity among all funds offered under the company savings plan, it goes in the right direction to develop the SRI and solidarity among the general public. Finally, I am convinced that the share devoted to the institutional SRI, which represents between 5% and 10% today, could double or even triple within three years. Good students in social practices Respecting the environment does not suffice for a company is held responsible. It must also be transparent in its management, and be the guarantor of good social practice. Beginning with the rejection of child labor. But this social criterion also considers the role that the company gives to its employees, through such consultations.Among the good performers in terms of social practices, Natixis currently distinguishes Boiron, Orpea, Sanofi-Aventis, Essilor, Technip, Sodexo, Randstad, Ansaldo, EDF Energy and new GDF Suez.