VAT recovery: Baroin backtracked

30th June

The one that Sunday was a "very very big niche tax" that deserved a helping hand plane finally spared. Baroin, Budget Minister returned to his whims and confirmed on Wednesday in an interview to Le Parisien / Today in France that the government would not reverse the reduced VAT rates for restaurants given a year ago.

"This measure is maintained" said the mayor of Troyes. "If it must be questioned, the debate will take place during the next presidential election," he added.

10 billion savings

It must be said that the budget minister no longer had much choice. Tuesday morning, his minister, Christine Lagarde, had hammered on RMC and BFM-TV that the reduction in tax loopholes would not affect the VAT at 5.5% of restaurant owners.Baroin will have to find other niches planing to recover 10 billion euros economy expected by 2013. The minister on Wednesday gave few tracks a bit fuzzy.

Besides the movement of the plane 10% on tax loopholes previously announced, it confirms the non-replacement of 100,000 civil service posts (3 billion savings), reduced operating costs (2000000000), the reduction of lifestyle State … Baroin explains that this is the second round of general revision of public policies.The first, launched in late 2007 as it would have to generate 7 billion euros.

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Delay EPR: Standard & Poor's Areva sanctions

28th June

Standard & Poor's finally penalized AREVA, judging the profitability of the group "depressed" for two years. The notes of French nuclear group, which was under surveillance by the rating agency since April 14 last, was finally degraded Monday by two notches to 'BBB +, cons A.

The first reason advanced by the agency for "the provision of 400 million euros related to the recently announced construction of the Olkiluoto 3 reactor in Finland. The further delay of the Finnish EPR, one of four currently under construction by Areva (with Flamanville in the Channel and two other Chinese), forcing the group to a new provision which would involve a negative operating result for the first half 2010. In total, the group has been provisioned 2.7 billion euros for this site should be completed in late 2012 with four years late.

S & P added that the profitability of Areva would also be affected by a "conflict" is contrasted with EDF about the Georges Besse enrichment plant, in the Drome. Both groups fail to reach an agreement to renew the contract which ensures the Areva uranium enrichment EDF.

The rating agency does have a stable outlook on the debt rating of Areva, convinced that the group should be able to implement successfully the remainder of the disposal plan and its plan to increase capital , strengthening its balance sheet.

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The G20 is wary of excessive austerity

27th June

From our special correspondent in Toronto.

Whatever the fans of austerity, the G20 Toronto has not been that of rigor. On the form, the exorbitant cost of the summit – 1.2 billion Canadian dollars, or 900 million Euro-shows that developed countries like Canada, still have strong reservations to spend public money to do their self-promotion. On the merits, the U.S. calls for further spending in the short term have been heard, even if Barack Obama had a hard time leaving scope for "recovery" in the final communique.

"We need to let it work through our plans for fiscal stimulus to consolidate the recovery," said the G20."Adjustments in the largest simultaneous countries could undermine the recovery," said the statement, which also bears the imprint of major emerging countries (China, India, Brazil, Russia).

Budgetary discipline

Pessimistic about the recovery, deemed "fragile and uneven, very worried about the" rate of unemployment reached unacceptable levels in certain countries, "the G20 always gives priority to growth. "Although Mrs Merkel has agreed to make more growth!" Says Nicolas Sarkozy.

For the first time, however, the virtues of fiscal restraint is recognized at the highest level."Sound public finances are essential to sustain the recovery, giving some leeway in case of a new shock, and avoid leaving future generations a legacy of deficits and debt" indicates the G20.

A commitment risk

But beware of plans rigor rushed! The G20 did not advocate austerity at all stages payday loans for self employed. "Fiscal adjustment needs to be carefully calibrated to support private demand," it said. "The consolidation measures should be phased in over time, growth, and differentiated according to country."

Angela Merkel welcomes the significant progress: the G20 endorsed the objectives of deficits and debt, modeled on the European Stability Pact, sanctions and less.The G20 developed countries commit to reduce their deficit in half by 2013 and to stabilize their debt to GDP by 2016. He was a Canadian proposal, which the first Prime Minister Stephen Harper to declare victory, after a summit a small scale.

But this commitment amounted G20 does not fear large world. The European Union should achieve this goal without problems, ensures José Manuel Barroso. France has already pledged to reduce its deficit 8% today to 3% in 2013. As the United States, they feel just referred.In its letter to its partners in the G20 to warn them against the rigors, Barack Obama has renewed its commitment to reducing the U.S. budget deficit by half in 2013 to return to deficits of 3% in 2015.

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Trichet defended the rigor

25th June

"The idea that the austerity measures could cause stagnation is incorrect", said on Thursday Jean-Claude Trichet. In an interview with Repubblica, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) is opposed to all those who, like Barack Obama, say that plans to reduce public deficits adopted in Berlin, London or Paris, will kill the recovery in the egg.

The U.S. president has sent a letter last week to warn his European counterparts against a premature withdrawal of stimulus policies. It will look this weekend at the G20 summit in Toronto, to convince its partners to soften their plans rigorously.

Wolfgang Schauble, the German finance minister, told him Thursday morning in an article signed for the Financial Times. "Germany knows its responsibility towards global growth," he told the British business daily."Our contribution will be through a role as an anchor of stablity and not digging the debt."

Unlike Bush, Trichet argued that "under present circumstances, policies inspiring confidence will strengthen and not hinder the economic recovery because trust is a key factor today." In this regard, we welcome the German example, "he added. Berlin has presented an austerity plan of 80 billion euros over four years. Italy, following his example, is on the right path, according to the president of the ECB.

The ECB estimates that the eurozone is "within an environment (…) unusually high uncertainty" as stated by Jean-Claude Trichet during his last press conference, June 10"The degree of uncertainty and the level of growth is not writing, it also depends on us." And so, in part, plans rigor that should reassure markets.

However, the billionaire investor George Soros has spoken out against the plans of rigor at a conference on the euro in Berlin, Wednesday evening. They provoke a cycle of deflation (falling prices and slow growth) which will endanger the European project, by the American. A threat that does not believe Jean-Claude Trichet: "I do not think that such risks could materialize, inflation is well anchored."

The European Central Bank has revised down growth for 2011 in early June, as many economists believe that consumption will be greatly diminished because of plans to reduce deficits.The ECB now expects growth in a range very wide ranging from 0.2% to 2.2%, against 0.5% to 2.5% previously estimated.

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Google defies Apple in music

23rd June

This is a total war being waged now Google and Apple, opening the front lines in all areas of mobile Internet. Mobile advertising terminals via the operating system and applications, the giant online research and computer manufacturer will not release one ounce of ground to their opponents. That's why Google, who made a fortune during a decade in marketing advertisements on its search engine, is preparing to start selling music online.

Germany: Luxury cars leave

22nd June

Welcoming their blitz-boom, leaders BMW, Mercedes and Audi display confident smiles. Driven by China's growth, the three automakers upscale German came out of the crisis in record time. A year ago, they still increased the pace of layoffs for part of thousands of their employees to cope with the collapse of global demand. In recent weeks, they continue to advance the pace of production to meet the boom in exports.

"Never before has such a situation had been improving at a rate cutting your breath so brutally," enthuses a member of the supervisory board of Daimler, maker of Mercedes, quoted by the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ).The very expensive "scrappage" introduced by the German federal state, which had boosted sales of Renault-Dacia in Germany, had not benefited the high-end manufacturers. But the system Kurzarbeit, unemployment part financed by the German state, allowed them to retain their skilled workforce and avoid the waves of layoffs. And come back even stronger.

Success of "Made in Germany"

The FAZ, which displays an unusual enthusiasm, believes that "German car manufacturers are experiencing a tale was unexpected." The factories are at full speed. "Mercedes has almost regained its level before the crisis," said a member of the supervisory board of Daimler.

The resumption of exports to the United States but especially in China explains this success.The models are the most luxurious locomotive production pay day loans. Thus, Mercedes increased its production of S-Class 41% in May, while BMW has experienced a surge in sales of 34% of its 7-series.

In factories in Sindelfingen and Bremen Untertürkheim, which produces luxury Mercedes models, the assembly lines now run on Saturday. Just as in Neckarsulm, where the A8 is constructed, the limousine flagship Audi. Several factories are planning to shorten from three to two weeks summer holidays. Daimler plans to hire 2,100 temporary workers to maintain production rates during the holidays. Daimler already employs 1,800 temporary workers. At BMW, they are 5000.The Bavarian company is seeking to recruit hundreds of graduates and plans to train some 1,000 additional workers.

Health insolent the German luxury car industry should result in a significant increase in stock price for the businesses concerned. More broadly, the entire German economy should benefit from the recovery in exports in 2010. The Federation of German Industries (BDI) expects "a growth of 8% of exports," for the current year. "The international demand for" Made in Germany "can pull Germany out of the crisis," said Werner Schnappauf, head of the BDI. The chemical and electrical industries are the sectors that benefit most from the recovery.Result: analysts predict a continuing decline in unemployment in Germany.

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The hassle of Barack Obama before the G20

19th June

The U.S. president, Barack Obama wrote to the Heads of State and Government of the G20 countries, who will meet on 26 and 27 June in Toronto, Canada, to inform them of three concerns: the "significant weaknesses "the private sector demand in some economies of the G20 and their dependence on exports, the state of public finances and reform of the financial system.

"I also want to stress that exchange rate determined by the market are essential to global economic vitality," wrote as Barack Obama, who is of course referring to China, which Washington believes the currency, the yuan, is artificially under -valued, preparing a showdown with his counterpart, Hu Jintao.

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Banks: Operation truth about the accounts

18th June

European Banks Are they healthy? The question that torments the markets will soon find an answer. Indeed, European leaders have agreed to the request of France and gave the green light to publish the detailed results of stress tests (stress test "in English) which are subject garndes their banks. The 27 hoping to reassure markets worried discover surprises.

These reviews are intended to reflect the ability of banks to withstand extreme financial and economic conditions. Currently, those made at European level on a score of major banks remain confidential.Last year, only general trends were made public, including the fact that European banks were sufficiently capitalized to face a severe deterioration of macroeconomic conditions.

First published in late July

Nicolas Sarkozy has confirmed at his press conference that the publication of these tests would take place in late July as desired by Paris. Earlier in the day, Christine Lagarde, French Minister of Economy, had told Reuters: "I am very positive about this publication. There is nothing worse than the rumors and doubts about the banks. " The Minister is confident, remembering that French banks have so far yielded positive results. These displays of the solvency ratios for the time, satisfactory. In the opposite case, Christine Lagarde said the banks to recapitalize.

Madrid triggers debate

The day before, the Spanish central bank had announced the forthcoming publication of the results of these tests. The newspaper El Pais had found the ad "unprecedented in the euro area. The Madrid Institute hopes to dispel the doubts now hanging on the strength of its banking sector. The Spanish governor of the Bank believes that the current rumors greatly amplify the difficulties of the Spanish financial industry. He hopes that the markets "are fully aware of the situation in the Spanish banking system."

Banks reluctant

Further to the announcement in Madrid, the German government long reluctant, finally decided to give the green light too. But Berlin has yet to convince its banks. German institutions showed far opposed the publication of these results.

Successful tests of Moody's

The European Central Bank will also favors the publication of these tests. In the eyes of the central bank, the operation of transparency is able to reassure the markets. And regulators have reason to be optimistic. Indeed, European banks have recently passed the tests of strength by Moody's. The rating agency has increased the stress tests to thirty European banks from ten countries, and concluded that they have a level of capital sufficient to take further losses.

Kerviel admits to having produced false

17th June

Jerome Kerviel has expressly acknowledged on Wednesday before the Paris Criminal Court, have committed crimes (embezzlement, forgery and uttering, hacking into a computer system) against him and makes it run five years in prison. While it seeks to introduce a nuance that relates to his defense – "the bank knew everything."Still, after a long and detailed questioning of the court, the president Dominique Pauthe and his two assessors, perfectly complementing the former trader at Société Générale could not dodge the onslaught of the Crown.

The prosecutor, Jean-Michel Aldebert, head of the financial section of the floor, asked him: "Have you created fictitious transactions to mask losses or gains?"

Jerome Kerviel: "Yes, Eliot [note: the computer system available to all].

-Have you provided false explanations to your hierarchy?

Non-credible explanation, yes.

Have you crafted fake e-mails?

Yes. "

But the magistrate, silhouette dry, sharp profile of a bird of prey, hushed tone, did not finish.He comes back three days during which, in early 2008, the montages of the trader-delusional about 50 billion euros pledged not covered market that will drive 4.9 billion of losses-have been uncovered: "During the week weekend of January 18 to 20, you do nothing to help the Societe Generale. Why?.

Jérôme Kerviel: "On Saturday the 19th, I was asked only about 1.9 billion that had won in 2007. I was impressed, intimidated, stressed by the officials that I had never seen …

-You sound like a person telling police custody on drugs! You had positions totaling 50 billion, why do not you say?

"It was not the topic this time bad credit payday advance. I answered the questions on the 1.4 billion point.

A few minutes earlier, the accused had replied on the same theme to questions, subtly, by Judge Virginia Tilmont. Especially this one: "Did you feel that challenge the system?"

Jerome Kerviel: "Absolutely not. In trading rooms is a little stash of national sport [note: some of its activities]. Everyone does, I perhaps more than others, but I tried to bring the most money in the bank. " A good little soldier, somehow, even if his methods were not always orthodox.

The boom is fully stretched to their consideration that Mr. Metzner. The lawyer for Mr. Kerviel comes out of his sleeve-mail dated Dec. 17, 2007, from the time his client has 1.4 billion euros and is preparing to invest 50 in the disastrous conditions that known.This email is signed by a certain Raymond Bunge supervisor Claire Dumas, who represents the SocGen this trial. It reads: "Good soldier must learn to disobey more out of the box".

Mr. Metzner Jerome Kerviel: "It reminds you what you asked?

The accused, not surprisingly, all smiles: "Yes."

So what if, as noted by Ms. Dumas, that assessment involved an employee of the department, which had no time to play with the funds lost money from his employer. What matters, after the wrong time spent by Jerome Kerviel, is having the last word. Jean Veil was understood that launches the formula fetish Mr. Metzner: "We agree. And for the first time, the bank puts the laugh on his side. In CHIP is a trick for the defense.

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Wall Street expected to open in positive

14th June

The Dow Jones is expected to open up 0.67% at 10,206 points. The index futures are predicting a slight increase in opening of U.S. markets. Shortly before the opening of Wall Street, futures on indices Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.76% respectively at 1093.30 points from 0.65% to 1854.50 points.

Caution remains the watchword. The statistics emerged mixed Friday, with an index of consumer confidence than expected for the month of June, but the announcement of an unexpected decline in retail sales in May The Dow Jones closed up 0.38% at 10,211 points while the Nasdaq gained 1.12% to 2243 points.The three major U.S. stock indices ended the week in the green since the S & P 500 closed with a gain of 2.5%

In this session of transition marked by an agenda very quiet and a euro that has just crossed the $ 1.21 mark, investors could resume, however, slowly, some appetite for risk, encouraged by the improving market Asian and good consumption figures published last week in the United States.

Real estate, consumption and inflation on the agenda

They eagerly await the remarks on Wednesday held Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on financial sector reform.We know already that the crisis of sovereign debt in Europe has pushed the timetable of the next Federal Reserve decision affecting its basic rate, as provided Monday James Bullard, president of Fed St. Louis.

Before that, the functions of building permits (Tuesday) and housing starts (Wednesday) will be monitored closely. But these indicators should have a real strong correction with the end of the tax credit.

On Wednesday, the industrial production should instead show strong growth for the month of May, while producer prices (same day), then consumer prices (Thursday), should confirm the absence of inflation United States.

Shortly loaded results, the agenda will be dominated by Wall Street setting CBOE Stock Exchange, the last U.S. platform independent.The price of the introduction should be provided on Monday night.

In addition, FedEx (Wednesday), the cruise Cardinal (today) and Best Buy (tomorrow) will publish their quarterly results.

Moreover, the U.S. administration is stepping up its action against the British oil and wants to confiscate the group dividends. A threat to the stock.